MSI

Rating buyAI Memo

Motorola Solutions

As of 2026-02-13/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results (estimated) • 2026-05-14

Expected move: +11%

Biggest risk

Procurement timing delays, weak ARR conversion, or margin pressure push valuation toward analyst lows and compress multiples.

Invalidation

Break below $422 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained contract wins, faster ARR growth, and realized integration synergies drive multiple expansion toward upper analyst targets.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-13

Base target

$462

p=60%

Bull target

$525

p=20%

Bear target

$422

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 2026 results (estimated)
Backlog growth, major contracts and integration benefits
Sustained contract wins, faster ARR growth, and realized integration synergies drive multiple expansion toward upper analyst targets.

BearKey bullets

Margin pressure from integration or supply-chain costs
Procurement timing delays for large public‑safety contracts
Slower-than-expected conversion to recurring software ARR

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 460.49, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-13T03:21:26+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets anchored to the provided price: bull (525.00), base (462.25), bear (422.18); chosen to align with reported analyst high/median/low and preserve monotonicity.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $462 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +26% / +2%

Vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +11% · Bear +2%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $525 (p=20%)Base Target: $462 (p=60%)Bear Target: $422 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed-to-cautious: analyst medians cluster near the anchor while the high/low spread reflects dispersion on contract timing and ARR durability; investors focus on recurring revenue and large-award cadence.

As of 2026-02-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained contract wins, faster ARR growth, and realized integration synergies drive multiple expansion toward upper analyst targets.

Bear Case

Procurement timing delays, weak ARR conversion, or margin pressure push valuation toward analyst lows and compress multiples.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 2026 results (estimated)
Backlog growth, major contracts and integration benefits

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$462.25

Range (USD)

$422.18 - $525.00

Count

Query: Motorola Solutions Inc Common (MSI) analyst consensus price target high low average

Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Analyst Insights: MSI. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 450.00. 496.50 Average ... Price Target 515 -> 520. View More. Statistics: MSI. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
Motorola Solutions (MSI) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $462.25 with a high forecast of $520.00 and a low forecast of $436.00. The average price target represents a 1.16% change from the ...
Extracted: $462.25, $520.00, $436.00Open source
MSI Stock Forecast - Motorola Solutions Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
... analysts. What is MSI's stock price target? Price Target. 489.38 USD. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSI is 489.38 USD ...
Extracted: $489.38Open source
Motorola (MSI) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #4
According to projections from 10 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Motorola is 487.90, with a high estimate of 525 and a low estimate of 436. What ...
Open source
Motorola Solutions, Inc. Stock Forecast | MSI Price Target & Analyst ...
Search result #5
The average 12-month price target for Motorola Solutions, Inc. is $443.00, based on 3 analysts. The highest price target is $525.00, while the lowest is $436.00 ...
Extracted: $443.00, $525.00, $436.00Open source
Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
Search result #6
Motorola Solutions (MSI) Stock Overview ; Earnings are forecast to grow 8.91% per year ; Earnings have grown 15.1% per year over the past 5 years ; Has a high ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$525 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$462 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$422 / p=20% prob

Price $415 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +11% · Bear +2%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 2026 results (estimated)
2026-05-14
Quarterly earnings and FY guidance; market reaction tied to software ARR and guidance. Date estimated.
Prob 95% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Backlog growth, major contracts and integration benefits
2027-02-13
Medium-term upside from public-safety contract awards and realized integration synergies; conservative one-year horizon used.
Prob 55% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Margin pressure from integration or supply-chain costs
Procurement timing delays for large public‑safety contracts
Slower-than-expected conversion to recurring software ARR

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LHX	L3Harris — comparable public-safety and government communications exposure; similar contract-driven profile.
AXON	Axon — public-safety software and subscription leader; relevant comparator for recurring revenue dynamics.
TDY	Teledyne — advanced sensors and mission-critical hardware plus software exposure; useful margin/contract comp.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Motorola Solutions Inc Common (MSI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-13

AI Stock Memo: MSI - Motorola Solutions - RankAlpha