MNRO

AI Memo

Monro

As of 2026-01-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital allocation / buyback update (assumed window) • 2026-07-01

Expected move: +13%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes persistent cost pressure, weaker consumer traffic, or disappointing execution that compresses multiples and lowers earnings.

Invalidation

Break below $14 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case rests on margin expansion from lower input costs, successful capital allocation, and steady same-store sales growth leading to multiple expansion.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-29

Base target

$19

p=60%

Bull target

$25

p=20%

Bear target

$14

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (Q4/2025) release
Normalization of parts and labor cost pressure
Bull case rests on margin expansion from lower input costs, successful capital allocation, and steady same-store sales growth leading to multiple expansion.

BearKey bullets

Capital allocation missteps or unexpected dilution
Persistent parts/labor inflation
Weaker-than-expected same-store sales

WatchKey bullets

Capital allocation / buyback update (assumed window)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $19 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +49% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +13% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $25 (p=20%)Base Target: $19 (p=60%)Bear Target: $14 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market commentary is mixed to neutral with several services showing a median near $19 and a wide high of $31, indicating dispersed analyst views [#SERP-2], [#SERP-8]. Short-term technicals and upcoming results drive attention, while longer-term sentiment hinges on margin recovery and buyback clarity [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-01-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case rests on margin expansion from lower input costs, successful capital allocation, and steady same-store sales growth leading to multiple expansion.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes persistent cost pressure, weaker consumer traffic, or disappointing execution that compresses multiples and lowers earnings.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings (Q4/2025) release
Normalization of parts and labor cost pressure

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-29Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$19.00

Range (USD)

$16.00 - $31.00

Count

Query: Monro Inc Common (MNRO) analyst consensus price target high low average

Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
MONRO INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $21.000000; an Industry Subrating of Low; a ... Low; and a Value Subrating of High. Rating.
Extracted: $21.00Open source
Monro, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #2
Average target price. 17.67USD ; Spread / Average Target. -5.58% ; High Price Target. 20.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +6.89% ; Low Price Target. 16.00USD.
Extracted: $17.67, $20.00, $16.00Open source
Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #3
According to the 4 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Monro Muffler Brake, the average price target is $17.67. The highest price target for MNRO is $19.00 ...
Extracted: $17.67, $19.00Open source
Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #4
The average price target is $20.00 with a high forecast of $20.00 and a low forecast of $20.00. The average price target represents a 11.98% change from the ...
Extracted: $20.00Open source
Monro Muffler Brake Consensus Estimates (MNRO)
Search result #5
According to projections from 3 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Monro Muffler Brake is 17.66667, with a high estimate of 20 and a low ...
Open source
Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO) Price Targets
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $17.00 to a high of $20.00. The average price target represents a decline of 9.52% from the last closing price of $21.00.
Extracted: $17.00, $20.00, $21.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=20% prob

Price $17 as of 2026-07-24

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +13% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-01
Capital allocation / buyback update (assumed window)
A disclosure or update on buybacks/dividend policy could modestly re-rate shares; assumed window end date used because no firm date disclosed [assumption]; see analyst summaries [#SERP-8].
Prob 40.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings (Q4/2025) release
2026-04-29
Q4 results and management commentary on same-store sales and margin trends could move the stock; consensus targets and recent analyst notes note modest upside risk [#SERP-2].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Normalization of parts and labor cost pressure
2027-01-29
A sustained easing in parts/labor cost inflation would expand margins and supports upside over 12+ months; consensus forecasts show mixed near-term views [#SERP-6].
Prob 45% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Capital allocation missteps or unexpected dilution
Persistent parts/labor inflation
Weaker-than-expected same-store sales

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ORLY	Larger specialty retailer with stronger national pricing power; useful operational benchmark.
AZO	National parts retailer with greater scale and margin resilience; contrast for pricing and inventory cycles.
GPC	Distributor/operator with broader commercial exposure; a useful peer for capital allocation and margin comparisons.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Monro Inc Common (MNRO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-29

AI Stock Memo: MNRO - Monro - RankAlpha