MNDY

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

monday.com

As of 2026-05-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise improved the near-term setup • 2026-05-11

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that guidance still points to moderated growth, the Q2 guide implies only 18%-19% y/y revenue growth, and post-print analyst reaction was mixed rather than uniformly bullish. UBS cut its target to $85 and kept Neutral, arguing the FY2026 raise was roughly in line with the Q1 beat and flagging management caution around forward demand and the pricing-model transition; Investing.com also reported BTIG and Oppenheimer target cuts despite constructive ratings.

Invalidation

Break below $52 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The primary-source bull case is that Q1 showed durable enterprise traction rather than just a one-quarter beat: customers above $50K ARR grew 32%, above $100K ARR grew 39%, above $500K ARR grew 74%, and RPO grew 33% y/y, while the company still posted record profitability and positive cash generation [#6K-2026-05-11]. The AI Work Platform launch adds a real product-cycle lever if consumption pricing expands wallet share across work management, CRM, service, and dev [#PR-2026-05-06].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-14

Base target

$80

p=45%

Bull target

$100

p=25%

Bear target

$52

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

May 19, 2026 management fireside chat is the next post-print checkpoint
AI Work Platform rollout and seats-plus-credits pricing are the main medium-term upside lever
The primary-source bull case is that Q1 showed durable enterprise traction rather than just a one-quarter beat: customers above $50K ARR grew 32%, above $100K ARR grew 39%, above $500K ARR grew 74%, and RPO grew 33% y/y, while the company still posted record profitability and positive cash generation [#6K-2026-05-11].

BearKey bullets

Execution risk is elevated around new AI products and the planned OneAI acquisition, and the FY2025 20-F explicitly flags risks tied to acquisitions, AI regulation, cybersecurity, and rapid product change [#20F-2026-03-13].
Management is shifting to a seats-plus-credits consumption model, which can create adoption friction and reduce near-term forecasting clarity even if the long-term opportunity is attractive.
Post-earnings analyst reaction was mixed; UBS lowered its target to $85 and highlighted that the FY2026 raise largely matched the Q1 beat rather than signaling a broad reacceleration.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 beat-and-raise improved the near-term setup

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $80 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +9% / -43%

Vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base -13% · Bear -43%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $100 (p=25%)Base Target: $80 (p=45%)Bear Target: $52 (p=30%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone improved materially, with Yahoo Finance reporting that MNDY shares surged more than 22% on May 11, 2026 after the earnings beat and upgraded outlook. By T+3, however, the reaction had become more mixed in analyst channels: UBS turned cautious on guidance quality, while other firms reportedly maintained positive stances but still trimmed targets. No usable social-context packet was provided, so this remains a filing-and-news driven monitoring view rather than a high-conviction sentiment call.

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

May 19, 2026 management fireside chat is the next post-print checkpoint
AI Work Platform rollout and seats-plus-credits pricing are the main medium-term upside lever

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$80 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=30% prob

Price $92 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base -13% · Bear -43%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.58

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-11
Q1 2026 beat-and-raise improved the near-term setup
On May 11, 2026, monday.com reported Q1 revenue of $351.3M (+24% y/y), record GAAP and non-GAAP operating income, RPO up 33% y/y, and raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.466B-$1.474B with adjusted free cash flow guidance of $280M-$290M [#6K-2026-05-11].
Prob 75.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

May 19, 2026 management fireside chat is the next post-print checkpoint
2026-05-19
The company said members of management will participate in a fireside chat on May 19, 2026, with a webcast on the IR site; this is a chance to clarify demand, AI pricing adoption, and post-earnings messaging, but conference remarks are usually incremental rather than thesis-changing [#PR-2026-05-13].
Prob 45% • Move 5% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AI Work Platform rollout and seats-plus-credits pricing are the main medium-term upside lever
2026-08-10
On May 6, 2026, management launched the AI Work Platform with native agents, AI connectors, and broader AI workflow tooling; the May 11 earnings release tied that launch to a new consumption-based pricing model, but management has not yet quantified revenue contribution, so this remains a monitoring catalyst rather than a proven inflection [#PR-2026-05-06] [#6K-2026-05-11].
Prob 50% • Move 20% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Execution risk is elevated around new AI products and the planned OneAI acquisition, and the FY2025 20-F explicitly flags risks tied to acquisitions, AI regulation, cybersecurity, and rapid product change [#20F-2026-03-13].
Management is shifting to a seats-plus-credits consumption model, which can create adoption friction and reduce near-term forecasting clarity even if the long-term opportunity is attractive.
Post-earnings analyst reaction was mixed; UBS lowered its target to $85 and highlighted that the FY2026 raise largely matched the Q1 beat rather than signaling a broad reacceleration.
The FY2025 20-F also flags foreign-exchange exposure, reliance on monday work management for a majority of revenue, and risks tied to conflicts in Israel and the broader region [#20F-2026-03-13].
The company said net dollar retention was 110% in Q1, but outside coverage indicated management expects it to drift to about 109% by Q4 2026, which would reinforce a slower expansion backdrop if confirmed on later calls.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ASAN	Closest public work-management peer; monday.com’s FY2025 20-F names Asana among its project and work management competitors, making it the cleanest read-through for execution and AI workflow adoption.
TEAM	Broader but relevant peer; monday.com’s 20-F cites Atlassian across project management, service management, and development tooling, useful for comparing multi-product platform strategy and AI-enabled workflow expansion.
FRSH	Adjacent operating peer; monday.com’s 20-F names Freshworks in both project/work management and service management, making it a reasonable comp for service and workflow expansion even if it is not a pure match.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-14

AI Stock Memo: MNDY - monday.com - RankAlpha