MGY

Rating buyAI Memo

Magnolia Oil Gas

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Dividend / capital-allocation update • 2026-03-31

Expected move: +2%

Biggest risk

Bear: weaker commodity realizations or a dividend/capital-allocation disappointment compresses the multiple toward analyst lows near $21 and reduces investor interest [#SERP-3].

Invalidation

Break below $21 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: durable oil strength plus consistent beat-and-raise execution drives higher FCF and multiple expansion toward the analyst high of $34 [#SERP-4].

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$26

p=60%

Bull target

$34

p=20%

Bear target

$21

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4/FY2025 results & guidance
Sustained oil recovery supports FCF
Bull: durable oil strength plus consistent beat-and-raise execution drives higher FCF and multiple expansion toward the analyst high of $34 [#SERP-4].

BearKey bullets

Cut to dividend or buyback
Declining oil prices
Energy-sector risk-off / rising rates

WatchKey bullets

Dividend / capital-allocation update

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $26 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +36% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +2% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $34 (p=20%)Base Target: $26 (p=60%)Bear Target: $21 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautiously constructive: the analyst median sits modestly above the broker-last anchor, implying limited upside. Coverage ranges $21 to $34, reflecting disagreement on volumes and capital returns [#SERP-3], [#SERP-4]. Near term, focus centers on results and capital-allocation clarity.

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: durable oil strength plus consistent beat-and-raise execution drives higher FCF and multiple expansion toward the analyst high of $34 [#SERP-4].

Bear Case

Bear: weaker commodity realizations or a dividend/capital-allocation disappointment compresses the multiple toward analyst lows near $21 and reduces investor interest [#SERP-3].

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4/FY2025 results & guidance
Sustained oil recovery supports FCF

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$25.53

Range (USD)

$21.00 - $34.00

Count

Query: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Class A Common (MGY) analyst consensus price target high low average

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $25.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of High; a ...
Extracted: $25.00Open source
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Consensus Estimates (MGY)
Search result #2
According to projections from 17 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Magnolia Oil is 26.58824, with a high estimate of 33 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) Price Targets
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $21.00 to a high of $31.00. The average price target represents an increase of 14.03% from the last closing price of $23.73.
Extracted: $21.00, $31.00, $23.73Open source
Magnolia Oil & Gas Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:MGY
Search result #4
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp has a consensus price target of $25.53 based on the ratings of 19 analysts. The high is $34 issued by Truist Securities on January ...
Extracted: $25.53, $34.00Open source
MGY Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #5
The price of MGY shares has increased $0.04 since the market last closed. This is a 0.15% rise. Closed at $23.77.
Extracted: $23.77Open source
Consensus Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Last Close Price. 22.48USD. Average target price. 26.59USD. Spread / Average Target. +18.28%. High Price Target. 33.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +46.80%. Low ...
Extracted: $22.48, $26.59, $33.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=20% prob

Price $25 as of 2026-07-30

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +2% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Dividend / capital-allocation update
Management may revise cash-return policy; market reaction is common and part of current analyst expectations [#SERP-1], [#SERP-6].
Prob 25.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4/FY2025 results & guidance
2026-04-24
Quarterly results and guidance will reset analyst 12-month targets clustered in the mid-$20s and can move the stock quickly [#SERP-2], [#SERP-4].
Prob 35% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained oil recovery supports FCF
2027-01-24
A durable commodity-price recovery would lift free cash flow and valuation; some recovery is already priced into analyst scenarios [#SERP-8], [#SERP-6].
Prob 40% • Move 30% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Cut to dividend or buyback
Declining oil prices
Energy-sector risk-off / rising rates
Operational downtime or production shortfall

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EOG	High-quality resource base and execution; comparable for portfolio mix and margin sensitivity to oil.
OXY	Integrated exposure with differing capital-return policy; provides macro-driven context.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp Class A Common (MGY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24

AI Stock Memo: MGY - Magnolia Oil Gas - RankAlpha