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MGY

Magnolia Oil GasB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull: durable oil strength plus consistent beat-and-raise execution drives higher FCF and multiple expansion toward the analyst high of $34 [#SERP-4].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Cut to dividend or buyback
Momentum
28
Value
59
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.53 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-01-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.30
Why
Momentum28 · Δ7d +1.0
Value59 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cut to dividend or buyback
  • • Declining oil prices
  • • Bear: weaker commodity realizations or a dividend/capital-allocation disappointment compresses the multiple toward analyst lows near $21 and reduces investor interest [#SERP-3].

Catalyst clock

2026-03-31

Dividend / capital-allocation update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
28
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-3.1
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-3.0
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
-19.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 27.8 / Value 58.9 / Sentiment 59.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$25.53
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.01B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
268.01M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
3.12
P/FCF (TTM)
13.86
Rev YoY
+50.1%
EPS YoY
+135.0%
Gross Margin
+50.8%
Op Margin
+38.2%
Net Debt
$152.78M
Current Ratio
1.58
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data