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MGY

Magnolia Oil GasC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull: durable oil strength plus consistent beat-and-raise execution drives higher FCF and multiple expansion toward the analyst high of $34 [#SERP-4].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Cut to dividend or buyback
Momentum
41
Value
61
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $25.53 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-01-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $32.89
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -2.4
Value61 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cut to dividend or buyback
  • • Declining oil prices
  • • Bear: weaker commodity realizations or a dividend/capital-allocation disappointment compresses the multiple toward analyst lows near $21 and reduces investor interest [#SERP-3].

Catalyst clock

2026-03-31

Dividend / capital-allocation update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+6.2
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+3.1
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-2.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 40.6 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 64.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$25.53
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.35B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
236.97M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
3.12
P/FCF (TTM)
13.86
Rev YoY
+50.1%
EPS YoY
+135.0%
Gross Margin
+50.8%
Op Margin
+38.2%
Net Debt
$152.78M
Current Ratio
1.58
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data