MEOH

AI Memo

Methanex

As of 2026-05-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Titan gas renewal remains a key September swing factor • 2026-09-30

Expected move: -7%

Biggest risk

The stock is still highly exposed to methanol price mean reversion and Trinidad gas-supply risk. The Titan contract expires in September 2026, and production guidance remains vulnerable to gas availability, outages, and other operating disruptions [#PR-2026-04-29].

Invalidation

Break below $41 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source Q1 results show better realized pricing, stable production, and a clear Q2 setup for much higher realized prices and EBITDA if the April-May price level persists [#PR-2026-04-29]. Continued deleveraging and cash generation could let the stock hold a higher range if operations stay steady.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-24

Base target

$55

p=45%

Bull target

$72

p=25%

Bear target

$41

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q2 pricing reset should show up in EBITDA
2026 production and deleveraging can support the equity if operations stay stable
Primary-source Q1 results show better realized pricing, stable production, and a clear Q2 setup for much higher realized prices and EBITDA if the April-May price level persists [#PR-2026-04-29].

BearKey bullets

Methanol pricing is cyclical; the Q2 realized-price spike may not persist beyond the current commodity move.
Production can still swing with gas availability, turnarounds, and unplanned outages across the portfolio.
Reported net income is noisy because share-price-linked compensation and other mark-to-market items can distort GAAP earnings.

WatchKey bullets

Titan gas renewal remains a key September swing factor

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $55 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +22% / -31%

Vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base -7% · Bear -31%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $72 (p=25%)Base Target: $55 (p=45%)Bear Target: $41 (p=30%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence improved materially after confirming the April 29, 2026 earnings release. The quarter showed higher realized pricing ($351/t versus $331/t in Q4), modestly higher production, and a clear management callout that April-May realized prices should run about $500-$525/t with significantly higher Q2 Adjusted EBITDA. Even so, this is still a monitoring setup rather than a clean rerate: the Titan gas contract expiry in September 2026 remains a major overhang, the peer set is only a loose materials proxy, no trusted post-print analyst revisions were found in the checked materials, and the anchor price of 60.12 is still above the packet's median target snapshot of 51.9.

As of 2026-05-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q2 pricing reset should show up in EBITDA
2026 production and deleveraging can support the equity if operations stay stable

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$55 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=30% prob

Price $59 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base -7% · Bear -31%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Titan gas renewal remains a key September swing factor
The Titan plant gas contract expires in September 2026, and Methanex said it is discussing renewal terms with the Natural Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago, with no assurance of commercially acceptable terms [#PR-2026-04-29].
Prob 55.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q2 pricing reset should show up in EBITDA
2026-06-30
Q1 average realized price was $351/t versus $331/t in Q4 2025, and management now expects April-May realized prices of about $500-$525/t with significantly higher Q2 Adjusted EBITDA if sales volumes hold [#PR-2026-04-29].
Prob 66% • Move 9% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2026 production and deleveraging can support the equity if operations stay stable
2026-12-31
Methanex reiterated 2026 production guidance of 9.0 million tonnes of methanol and 0.3 million tonnes of ammonia, repaid $60 million of Term Loan A, and ended Q1 with $379 million of cash; sustained execution would strengthen the balance sheet and support the post-acquisition asset base [#PR-2026-04-29].
Prob 58% • Move 11% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Methanol pricing is cyclical; the Q2 realized-price spike may not persist beyond the current commodity move.
Production can still swing with gas availability, turnarounds, and unplanned outages across the portfolio.
Reported net income is noisy because share-price-linked compensation and other mark-to-market items can distort GAAP earnings.
Titan gas contract renewal in Trinidad expires in September 2026 and may not be secured on commercially acceptable terms.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
WFG	Size-matched Materials peer, but only a loose operating comp; useful mainly as a cyclical benchmark rather than a direct methanol comparator.
HCC	Commodity-sensitive Materials name that helps frame cyclicality and balance-sheet sensitivity, though its end markets differ materially from Methanex.
MTRN	More specialty-oriented Materials peer with less direct commodity exposure, useful as a contrast for pricing power versus Methanex's methanol cycle exposure.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-24

AI Stock Memo: MEOH - Methanex - RankAlpha