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MEOH

MethanexC
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated strong operating leverage to methanol pricing, record North American production, substantial cash generation, and full repayment of Term Loan A. Continued supply disruption or stable methanol pricing could support cash accumulation and valuation recovery.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
Demand rationalization, especially in China's methanol-to-olefins segment, could offset supply tightness.
Momentum
75
Value
69
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $55.00 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $70.91
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +15.7
Value69 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Demand rationalization, especially in China's methanol-to-olefins segment, could offset supply tightness.
  • • Management expects sequentially lower Q3 adjusted EBITDA, with shipping costs creating an estimated $30-$40 million quarterly headwind.
  • • The near-term outlook is less favorable: Q3 realized prices are guided lower, shipping costs are a material headwind, and demand rationalization may deepen if inventories remain tight.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

Titan restart optionality and Trinidad gas supply

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
75
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.7
Δ21d
+27.7
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 74.8 / Value 69.4 / Sentiment 53.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.43B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
77.36M
P/E (TTM)
14.1
P/S (TTM)
0.93
P/FCF (TTM)
3.79
Rev YoY
+75.2%
EPS YoY
+169.3%
Gross Margin
+17.4%
Op Margin
+17.4%
Net Debt
$3.08B
Current Ratio
2.07
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data