AI Stock Memo: MCHX - Marchex - RankAlpha

MCHX

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

Marchex

As of 2026-03-26/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

future-looking catalyst discovery is still SERP-only and has not been confirmed by a primary source; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 / Full-Year 2025 Results and Archenia transaction update (8-K) • 2026-03-25

Expected move: -4%

Biggest risk

Failure to convert AI product investments into durable revenue growth or continued operating losses / cash-pressure could push the stock toward low-single-digit valuations and materially below current levels.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If Marchex executes on AI-bundled product adoption, hits ~10% revenue growth run-rate in 2026 with margin expansion and successful integration of any announced transactions, the stock could re-rate toward analyst highs where multiples expand on stronger growth visibility.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-26

Base target

p=55%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Potential near-term revenue or margin shortfall vs.
guidance
Execution of 2026 revenue growth run-rate via AI-driven bundled solutions

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on AI product commercialization and customer adoption
Liquidity / cash-burn pressure requiring dilutive financing
Revenue or margin misses vs.

WatchKey bullets

Q4 / Full-Year 2025 Results and Archenia transaction update (8-K)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $2 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +141% / -46%

Vs latest close: Bull +141% · Base -4% · Bear -46%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $4 (p=20%)Base Target: $2 (p=55%)Bear Target: $1 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: recent press coverage highlights management's 2026 revenue growth target and an Archenia transaction update, which supports cautious optimism [#SERP-1]. However investor focus on near-term margins and cash runway keeps sentiment guarded, reinforced by the SEC 8-K reporting tone about results [#8-K-2026-03-25]. Overall dialogue centers on execution vs. guidance and financing risk.

As of 2026-03-26 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Potential near-term revenue or margin shortfall vs. guidance
Execution of 2026 revenue growth run-rate via AI-driven bundled solutions

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-26Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$1.45

Range (USD)

$1.37 - $4.00

Count

Query: Marchex Inc Class B Common (MCHX) analyst consensus price target high low average

Marchex, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Analysts' Consensus ; Spread / Average Target. +142.42% ; High Price Target. 4.000USD ; Spread / Highest target. +142.42% ; Low Price Target. 4.000USD ; Spread / ...
Extracted: $4.00Open source
MCHX Analyst Ratings for Marchex Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #4
Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Moderate Buy. 4.00. Based on 2 analysts.
Open source
Marchex (Nasdaq:MCHX) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
Search result #6
Research Marchex's (Nasdaq:MCHX) fundamentals, past performance, valuation, dividends and more.
Open source
Marchex Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy MCHX?
Search result #7
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 24th we expect Marchex to open at $1.41, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $1.37 ...
Extracted: $1.41, $1.37Open source
MCHX Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #9
Marchex, Inc. Class B ; Price Momentum. MCHX is trading in the middle ; Price change. The price of MCHX shares has increased $0.06 ; Closed at $1.49. The stock has ...
Extracted: $1.49Open source
Marchex, Inc. (MCHX) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Marchex, Inc., a conversation intelligence company, provides conversational ... Price Target 4.75 -> 4. View More. Statistics: MCHX. View More. Valuation ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=25% prob

Price $2 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +141% · Base -4% · Bear -46%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-25
Q4 / Full-Year 2025 Results and Archenia transaction update (8-K)
Company filed an 8-K disclosing results of operations and financial condition for the period ended 2026-03-25 (Item 2.02); market reaction and follow-on investor guidance/clarification could move shares near-term [#8-K-2026-03-25].
Prob 90.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Potential near-term revenue or margin shortfall vs. guidance
2026-06-24
Downside risk if reported revenue or operating margin misses the company's communicated 2026 growth trajectory, given modest cash runway and negative operating income trends in recent periods (monitor quarterly disclosures and cash flow) [#8-K-2026-03-25].
Prob 40% • Move -40% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution of 2026 revenue growth run-rate via AI-driven bundled solutions
2027-03-26
Management has publicly communicated a target of ~10% revenue growth run-rate in 2026 driven by AI-bundled solutions and solution mix improvement; if execution reaches this run-rate and margins expand, it would materially re-rate valuation (primary forward guidance in recent press release / investor communications; market summary cited) [#SERP-1].
Prob 45% • Move 75% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution risk on AI product commercialization and customer adoption
Liquidity / cash-burn pressure requiring dilutive financing
Revenue or margin misses vs. communicated 2026 run-rate

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DHX	Smaller digital media/recruiting peer with similar market cap and exposure to subscription/advertising cyclical demand.
TZOO	Travelzoo: consumer-facing media/offer platform with ad/content monetization similarities and similar market-cap scale.
CDLX	Cardlytics: data-driven ad platform serving similar advertiser customers and performance-ad monetization dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Marchex Inc Class B Common (MCHX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-26