AI Stock Memo: MCD - McDonald's - RankAlpha

MCD

Rating buyAI Memo

McDonald's

As of 2026-02-04/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 earnings release • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +21%

Biggest risk

Traffic softness, pricing pushback, or a deterioration in international markets combined with higher commodity/labor costs could compress margins and reduce valuation toward the analyst low range.

Invalidation

Break below $260 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution of menu initiatives, continued digital mix gains, and stable commodity trends drive higher comps and margin expansion, justifying multiple expansion to analyst highs.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-02-04

Base target

$333

p=65%

Bull target

$391

p=20%

Bear target

$260

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Promotional cadence & menu rollouts
Digital, international expansion & franchise mix
Execution of menu initiatives, continued digital mix gains, and stable commodity trends drive higher comps and margin expansion, justifying multiple expansion to analyst highs.

BearKey bullets

Franchisee profitability/relationship strain
Higher commodity or labor pressure
Traffic weakness from macro slowdown

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $333 (p=65%)

Bull/Bear spread: +41% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +41% · Base +21% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $391 (p=20%)Base Target: $333 (p=65%)Bear Target: $260 (p=15%)

Commentary

Consensus shows modest upside versus the anchor with median targets in the low-to-mid $330s and highs near $370–$390; commentary is constructive on digital/loyalty but cautious on cost inflation [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Execution of menu initiatives, continued digital mix gains, and stable commodity trends drive higher comps and margin expansion, justifying multiple expansion to analyst highs.

Bear Case

Traffic softness, pricing pushback, or a deterioration in international markets combined with higher commodity/labor costs could compress margins and reduce valuation toward the analyst low range.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Promotional cadence & menu rollouts
Digital, international expansion & franchise mix

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$333.11

Range (USD)

$260.00 - $390.60

Count

Query: McDonald's Corp Common (MCD) analyst consensus price target high low average

McDonald's Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Last Close Price. 319.48USD. Average target price. 334.84USD. Spread / Average Target. +4.81%. High Price Target. 372.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +16.44%.
Extracted: $319.48, $334.84, $372.00Open source
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #2
According to the 31 analysts' twelve-month price targets for McDonald's, the average price target is $331.37. The highest price target for MCD is $375.00, while ...
Extracted: $331.37, $375.00Open source
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts ...
Search result #3
The average price target is $339.24 with a high forecast of $372.00 and a low forecast of $305.00. The average price target represents a 7.70% change from the ...
Extracted: $339.24, $372.00, $305.00Open source
MCD Stock Forecast - McDonald's Corp - Alpha Spread
Search result #4
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCD is 344.06 USD with a low forecast of 262.6 USD and a high forecast of 390.6 USD. What ...
Extracted: $344.06, $262.60, $390.60Open source
McDonald's (MCD) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #5
According to projections from 32 analysts, the average 12-month price target for McDonald's is 334.84, with a high estimate of 372 and a low estimate of 260 ...
Open source
MCD / McDonald's Corporation (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for McDonald's Corporation is $342.56. The forecasts range from a low of $262.60 to a high of $389.55. A stock's price target ...
Extracted: $342.56, $262.60, $389.55Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$391 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$333 / p=65% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$260 / p=15% prob

Price $276 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +41% · Base +21% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Q1 2026 earnings release
Quarterly results and management commentary on guidance and traffic; assumed conservative date (window end) due to no single confirmed date in public consensus sources.
Prob 95.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Promotional cadence & menu rollouts
2026-05-05
Near-term promotional execution and new menu items may lift same-store sales and margins; consensus sensitivity in analysts' notes implies modest upside if execution is clean [#SERP-3].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Digital, international expansion & franchise mix
2027-02-04
Multi-year improvement from digital sales penetration, delivery, and favorable franchise mix could drive margin expansion and multiple re-rating over a full year [#SERP-1].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Franchisee profitability/relationship strain
Higher commodity or labor pressure
Traffic weakness from macro slowdown

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SBUX	Global coffee chain with a strong digital/rewards program — useful comp for consumer loyalty and AOV trends.
YUM	Large franchisor with similar international exposure and AUV/franchise dynamics; helpful for franchise-mix comparisons.
QSR	Restaurant Brands International peer for global franchising strategy and margin leverage via royalties/fees.
CMG	Premium fast-casual peer that highlights traffic and average check sensitivity to menu pricing and input costs.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: McDonald's Corp Common (MCD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-04