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MCD

McDonald'sD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The September investor update adds measurable share, productivity and margin targets to an established loyalty platform. Q2 loyalty-member systemwide sales reached $40 billion over the trailing twelve months, up more than 20%, while 90-day active users rose 13%.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.
What can break
Approximately $8.5 billion of planned NEXT partnering support through 2036 exposes McDonald's and franchisees to deployment, cost and payback risk. [#8-K-2026-09-23]
Momentum
31
Value
48
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $245.00 · Bull $280.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $292.83
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d -0.3
Value48 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Approximately $8.5 billion of planned NEXT partnering support through 2036 exposes McDonald's and franchisees to deployment, cost and payback risk. [#8-K-2026-09-23]
  • • Negative U.S. comparable guest counts in Q2 despite positive check growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
  • • Q2 U.S.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-05

Make It Golden launch on October 5

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-11.9
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-16.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 30.9 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 51.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$280.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$175.82B
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
707.64M
P/E (TTM)
25.6
P/S (TTM)
8.13
P/FCF (TTM)
92.28
Rev YoY
+3.8%
EPS YoY
+5.8%
Gross Margin
+57.4%
Op Margin
+45.7%
Net Debt
$54.04B
Current Ratio
1.08
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data