AI Stock Memo: MC - Moelis - RankAlpha

MC

Rating neutralAI Memo

Moelis

As of 2026-04-29/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-print call and early analyst revision window • 2026-05-04

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that EPS and adjusted net income fell despite higher revenue, non-comp expenses rose on deal-related, communications, and technology costs, and the 10-K underscores that Moelis has highly volatile advisory-fee economics tied to transaction closings outside its control [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-K-2026-02-26].

Invalidation

Break below $56 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull read is that record Q1 revenue, record announced transaction activity, a near-all-time-high pipeline, continued Managing Director additions, no debt, and aggressive buybacks indicate the franchise is still benefiting from an improving advisory backdrop despite near-term earnings noise [#8-K-2026-04-29].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-29

Base target

$65

p=45%

Bull target

$80

p=25%

Bear target

$56

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 earnings reset focuses attention on conversion versus margin
Capital return and hiring support the franchise, but quarter-to-quarter volatility remains structural
The bull read is that record Q1 revenue, record announced transaction activity, a near-all-time-high pipeline, continued Managing Director additions, no debt, and aggressive buybacks indicate the franchise is still benefiting from an improving advisory backdrop despite near-term earnings noise [#8-K-2026-04-29].

BearKey bullets

Advisory revenue depends on a limited number of large engagements and transaction closings, so quarterly results can swing sharply [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Competitive pricing pressure remains high because larger banks can bundle lending, trading, and financing with advisory services, which Moelis says can put it at a disadvantage [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Q1 non-compensation expense increased 16% on an adjusted basis, driven mainly by deal-related, communications, and technology costs, which can pressure margins if revenue conversion slows [#8-K-2026-04-29].

WatchKey bullets

Post-print call and early analyst revision window

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $65 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +20% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base -3% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $80 (p=25%)Base Target: $65 (p=45%)Bear Target: $56 (p=30%)

Commentary

Tone is mixed but not broken: the April 29, 2026 earnings release provided a credible primary-source positive on record revenue, pipeline, buybacks, and balance sheet strength, yet the immediate earnings print also showed lower EPS and higher non-comp costs. This is a same-day/T+1 setup, so reliable post-print analyst revision evidence and settled market reaction were still limited in the checked sources; the April 28, 2026 anchor close was $69.69 before the release, which argues for monitoring language rather than a stronger directional call.

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 earnings reset focuses attention on conversion versus margin
Capital return and hiring support the franchise, but quarter-to-quarter volatility remains structural

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$80 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$65 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$56 / p=30% prob

Price $67 as of 2026-06-10

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base -3% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-04
Post-print call and early analyst revision window
This is a T+1 earnings follow-up run after the April 29, 2026 release; the company furnished Q1 results and an updated investor presentation, but meaningful post-print analyst target or estimate revisions were not available in the checked evidence, so the next several sessions matter for whether the record revenue headline is validated or faded [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Prob 55.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 earnings reset focuses attention on conversion versus margin
2026-05-06
Moelis reported record Q1 2026 revenue of $319.8 million, up 4% year over year, but adjusted EPS fell to $0.50 from $0.64 and adjusted net income fell 21%; management also noted a pipeline near all-time highs, leaving the near-term debate centered on whether announced activity converts fast enough to offset softer per-share earnings and higher non-comp costs [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Prob 75% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital return and hiring support the franchise, but quarter-to-quarter volatility remains structural
2026-08-05
Moelis ended Q1 with $353.7 million of cash and short-term investments, no debt, a maintained $0.65 dividend, and 1.9 million shares repurchased in the quarter, while continuing senior hiring; however, the 10-K says revenues and profits are highly volatile because fees depend on transaction milestones outside the firm's control, so durable upside still requires stronger mandate conversion rather than only capital return [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Prob 65% • Move 9% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Advisory revenue depends on a limited number of large engagements and transaction closings, so quarterly results can swing sharply [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Competitive pricing pressure remains high because larger banks can bundle lending, trading, and financing with advisory services, which Moelis says can put it at a disadvantage [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Q1 non-compensation expense increased 16% on an adjusted basis, driven mainly by deal-related, communications, and technology costs, which can pressure margins if revenue conversion slows [#8-K-2026-04-29].
The company cited a strong pipeline, but management also states any quarter may not be representative of future periods, limiting confidence in extrapolating one quarter's announced activity [#8-K-2026-04-29].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EVR	Moelis identifies Evercore as one of its publicly traded global independent investment bank peers in its 2025 10-K, making it a cleaner operating comp than broad financials [#10-K-2026-02-26].
LAZ	Lazard is listed by Moelis as a publicly traded peer and is relevant because both compete for advisory mandates where fee timing and market conditions drive earnings variability [#10-K-2026-02-26].
PJT	PJT Partners is also named in Moelis's peer set and is useful for framing boutique-advisory valuation and deal-cycle sensitivity rather than bank balance-sheet exposure [#10-K-2026-02-26].

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-29