B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MC
MoelisCNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull read is that record Q1 revenue, record announced transaction activity, a near-all-time-high pipeline, continued Managing Director additions, no debt, and aggressive buybacks indicate the franchise is still benefiting from an improving advisory backdrop despite near-term earnings noise [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
What can break
Advisory revenue depends on a limited number of large engagements and transaction closings, so quarterly results can swing sharply [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Momentum
42
Value
52
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $65.00 · Bull $80.00 · Bear $56.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $72.20
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d +0.4
Value52 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Advisory revenue depends on a limited number of large engagements and transaction closings, so quarterly results can swing sharply [#10-K-2026-02-26].
- • Competitive pricing pressure remains high because larger banks can bundle lending, trading, and financing with advisory services, which Moelis says can put it at a disadvantage [#10-K-2026-02-26].
- • The bear read is that EPS and adjusted net income fell despite higher revenue, non-comp expenses rose on deal-related, communications, and technology costs, and the 10-K underscores that Moelis has highly volatile advisory-fee economics tied to transaction closings outside its control [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
Post-print call and early analyst revision window
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-2.1
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 42.4 / Value 52.2 / Sentiment 60.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.41B
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
74.08M
P/E (TTM)
25.0
P/S (TTM)
3.98
P/FCF (TTM)
18.14
Rev YoY
+12.0%
EPS YoY
+16.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.4%
Net Debt
-$242.21M
Current Ratio
0.63
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data