MAC

Rating buyAI Memo

Macerich

As of 2026-02-03/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Strategic asset sales / balance-sheet actions announced • 2026-12-31

Base target: $20 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Bear: Slower leasing, continued traffic weakness, and poorly priced or delayed dispositions that keep FFO depressed and force multiple compression toward analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $15 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: Successful execution of targeted asset sales at constructive prices, measurable lease-up and rent-roll improvement at core centers, and visible FFO recovery that supports multiple expansion toward analyst highs.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-03

Base target

$20

p=60%

Bull target

$26

p=20%

Bear target

$15

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release (estimated)
Persistent retail foot-traffic and leasing recovery
Bull: Successful execution of targeted asset sales at constructive prices, measurable lease-up and rent-roll improvement at core centers, and visible FFO recovery that supports multiple expansion toward analyst highs.

BearKey bullets

Rising interest rates and cap-rate expansion would increase financing costs and compress NAV.
Weak consumer spending, tenant bankruptcies, or anchor-store closures could materially reduce rents and occupancy.
Failure to execute asset sales or refinancing at acceptable prices would force low-priced dispositions and delay equity recovery.

WatchKey bullets

Strategic asset sales / balance-sheet actions announced

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $20 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +32% / -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $26 (p=20%)Base Target: $20 (p=60%)Bear Target: $15 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus is cautiously constructive: median analyst targets sit modestly above the current price while the range reflects disagreement on execution and NAV recovery. Near-term sentiment is driven by earnings, leasing momentum, and any portfolio-transaction headlines. Positive execution on asset sales or leasing would quickly shift tone to constructive; adverse news would tighten downside focus.

As of 2026-02-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear: Slower leasing, continued traffic weakness, and poorly priced or delayed dispositions that keep FFO depressed and force multiple compression toward analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release (estimated)
Persistent retail foot-traffic and leasing recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-03Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$19.90

Range (USD)

$15.00 - $26.25

Count

Query: Macerich Co Common (MAC) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for The Macerich ...
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $15.00 to a high of $25.00. The average price target represents an increase of 6.69% from the last closing price of $18.68.
Extracted: $15.00, $25.00, $18.68Open source
Macerich Company (MAC) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ... - TipRanks
Search result #2
The average price target is $19.90 with a high forecast of $23.00 and a low forecast of $18.00. The average price target represents a 6.53% change from the last ...
Extracted: $19.90, $23.00, $18.00Open source
MAC | Macerich Co. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #3
0.06. Median PE on Next FY Estimate, N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $25.00. Median, $20.00. Low, $15.00. Average, $19.93. Current Price, $18.40. Yearly Numbers.
Extracted: $25.00, $20.00, $15.00, $19.93, $18.40Open source
The Macerich Company: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 16 ; Last Close Price. 18.36USD ; Average target price. 19.87USD ; Spread / Average Target. +8.21%.
Extracted: $18.36, $19.87Open source
MAC / The Macerich Company (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for The Macerich Company is $20.09. The forecasts range from a low of $15.15 to a high of $26.25. Read More.
Extracted: $20.09, $15.15, $26.25Open source
The Macerich Company (MAC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #6
200M. Afficher davantage. Analyst Insights: MAC. Afficher davantage. Analyst Price Targets. 15.00 Low. 20.13 Average. 18.72 Actuel. 25.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Strategic asset sales / balance-sheet actions announced
Management has publicly discussed portfolio optimization possibilities; a clear asset-sale program or accelerated dispositions would materially re-rate NAV expectations (date assumed as year-end window end). [#SERP-5]
Prob 45.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release (estimated)
2026-05-04
Quarterly results and management commentary on leasing, occupancy and guidance could move the stock; exact date not disclosed — conservatively scheduled as a near-term catalyst. Assumed date = as_of_date + 90 days. [#SERP-3]
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Persistent retail foot-traffic and leasing recovery
2027-02-03
A sustained improvement in mall traffic and higher renewal spreads across premium centers would support NAV upside and multiple expansion; theme validated by multiple analyst target aggregates. [#SERP-1] [#SERP-3]
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Rising interest rates and cap-rate expansion would increase financing costs and compress NAV. Weak consumer spending, tenant bankruptcies, or anchor-store closures could materially reduce rents and occupancy. Failure to execute asset sales or refinancing at acceptable prices would force low-priced dispositions and delay equity recovery.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SPG	Largest mall owner/operator; useful comparator for premium portfolio quality, pricing power and foot-traffic trends.
SKT	Outlet-focused shopping-center operator; informs sensitivity to consumer spending and tenant mix durability.
KIM	Open-air, neighborhood-center landlord; provides a defensive lease-profile contrast to regional malls.
CBL	Lower-tier mall REIT with recent restructuring experience; illustrates downside outcomes under weak leasing and financing stress.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Macerich Co Common (MAC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-03

Loading AI feed…

Symbol

Summary

SPG

Largest mall owner/operator; useful comparator for premium portfolio quality, pricing power and foot-traffic trends.

SKT

Outlet-focused shopping-center operator; informs sensitivity to consumer spending and tenant mix durability.

KIM

Open-air, neighborhood-center landlord; provides a defensive lease-profile contrast to regional malls.

CBL

Lower-tier mall REIT with recent restructuring experience; illustrates downside outcomes under weak leasing and financing stress.