B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$26.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
MAC
MacerichDNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull: Successful execution of targeted asset sales at constructive prices, measurable lease-up and rent-roll improvement at core centers, and visible FFO recovery that supports multiple expansion toward analyst highs.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.7.
What can break
Rising interest rates and cap-rate expansion would increase financing costs and compress NAV. Weak consumer spending, tenant bankruptcies, or anchor-store closures could materially reduce rents and occupancy. Failure to execute asset sales or refinancing at acceptable prices would force low-priced dispositions and delay equity recovery.
Momentum
47
Value
54
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $19.90 · Bull $26.25 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-02-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.07
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -2.8
Value54 · Δ7d -
Sentiment42 · Δ7d +4.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Rising interest rates and cap-rate expansion would increase financing costs and compress NAV. Weak consumer spending, tenant bankruptcies, or anchor-store closures could materially reduce rents and occupancy. Failure to execute asset sales or refinancing at acceptable prices would force low-priced dispositions and delay equity recovery.
- • Bear: Slower leasing, continued traffic weakness, and poorly priced or delayed dispositions that keep FFO depressed and force multiple compression toward analyst lows.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
Q4 / FY2025 earnings release (estimated)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-25.5
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+5.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 47.0 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 42.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$19.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.27B
Beta
2.15
Shares Out
283.56M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-87.5
P/S (TTM)
4.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
636.30
Rev YoY
+41.2%
EPS YoY
+2.3%
Gross Margin
-1.8%
Op Margin
-5.7%
Net Debt
$4.76B
Current Ratio
0.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data