LTM

AI Memo

LATAM Airlines Group

As of 2026-01-23/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Analyst consensus refresh / 12-month target updates • 2026-07-22

Expected move: +10%

Biggest risk

Sustained weaker demand or fuel/FX shocks reduce margins; failure to materially improve unit costs or network yields would leave shares toward the low end of analyst ranges (≈$45.33).

Invalidation

Break below $45 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Rebound in premium international traffic and disciplined capacity alongside successful cost and fleet execution drive margin expansion; rerating toward the analyst high (≈$70) as earnings visibility improves.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-23

Base target

$59

p=50%

Bull target

$70

p=20%

Bear target

$45

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly results / demand surprise risk
Fleet / cost rationalization and network recovery
Rebound in premium international traffic and disciplined capacity alongside successful cost and fleet execution drive margin expansion; rerating toward the analyst high (≈$70) as earnings visibility improves.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on fleet and cost programs
Fuel price and FX volatility impacting margins
Slow international demand recovery or COVID-like travel disruptions

WatchKey bullets

Analyst consensus refresh / 12-month target updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $59 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +31% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +10% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $70 (p=20%)Base Target: $59 (p=50%)Bear Target: $45 (p=30%)

Commentary

Market snippets show mixed analyst views with a median target below the current anchor, indicating cautious positioning [#SERP-5]. Coverage fragments highlight a wide high/low spread (≈$45–$70), reflecting binary outcomes tied to demand recovery and execution [#SERP-1]. Recent consensus excerpts emphasize modest upside in the near term absent a clear earnings beat [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-01-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Sustained weaker demand or fuel/FX shocks reduce margins; failure to materially improve unit costs or network yields would leave shares toward the low end of analyst ranges (≈$45.33).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly results / demand surprise risk
Fleet / cost rationalization and network recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-23Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$58.69

Range (USD)

$45.33 - $70.00

Count

Query: LATAM Airlines Group SA ADR (LTM) analyst consensus price target high low average

LATAM Airlines ADR (LTM) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 9 analysts, the average 12-month price target for LATAM Airlines ADR is 59.563, with a high estimate of 70 and a low estimate ...
Open source
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR (LTM) Stock ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $59.25 with a high forecast of $60.00 and a low forecast of $58.50. The average price target represents a -0.25% change from the ...
Extracted: $59.25, $60.00, $58.50Open source
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #3
Analyst Price Targets. 53.00 Low. 60.74 Average. 62.42 Current. 70.20 High ... Price Target 55 -> 60. View More. Statistics: LTM. View More. Valuation Measures.
Open source
LATAM AIRLINES GROUP SA-ADR (LTM) Stock Analyst ...
Search result #4
11 analysts have analysed LTM and the average price target is 56 USD. This implies a price decrease of -5.21% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $56.00Open source
LTM | LATAM Airlines Group S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates
Search result #5
4.11. Median PE on Next FY Estimate, N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $70.00. Median, $60.00. Low, $56.00. Average, $61.61. Current Price, $54.10. Yearly Numbers.
Extracted: $70.00, $60.00, $56.00, $61.61, $54.10Open source
LATAM (LTM) Price Targets
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $56.00 to a high of $60.00. The average price target represents a decline of 0.42% from the last closing price of $58.88.
Extracted: $56.00, $60.00, $58.88Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$70 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$59 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=30% prob

Price $54 as of 2026-07-14

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +10% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-22
Analyst consensus refresh / 12-month target updates
Periodic analyst target updates and coverage changes typically occur in the next 3–6 months; assumed window end chosen for planning (assumption noted) and could reprice shares if revisions are material [#SERP-1], [#SERP-2].
Prob 25.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly results / demand surprise risk
2026-04-23
Upcoming quarterly results could surprise vs. the current analyst median and move the ADR; consensus price targets cluster near the mid-$50s–$60s which could amplify reactions [#SERP-5].
Prob 35% • Move 15% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Fleet / cost rationalization and network recovery
2027-01-23
Multi-quarter execution on fleet modernization and route optimization could materially improve margins and justify a re-rating if sustained; treat as a 12-month+ outcome [#SERP-3].
Prob 40% • Move 30% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Execution risk on fleet and cost programs
Fuel price and FX volatility impacting margins
Slow international demand recovery or COVID-like travel disruptions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AAL	Large U.S. legacy carrier with similar exposure to North/South American demand cycles; useful comparator for revenue sensitivity.
UAL	Network carrier; comparable exposure to fuel and capacity cycles and US-Latin traffic flows.
IAG	European network carrier with sizable South American operations exposure—serves as a cross-market peer for international traffic recovery.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: LATAM Airlines Group SA ADR (LTM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-23

AI Stock Memo: LTM - LATAM Airlines Group - RankAlpha