AI Stock Memo: LPG - Dorian LPG - RankAlpha

LPG

Rating buyAI Memo

Dorian LPG

As of 2026-02-09/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings / dividend announcement • 2026-05-10

Expected move: -15%

Biggest risk

Prolonged weak charter rates, vessel oversupply or demand shock reduce TCEs, force dividend cuts and compress multiples toward cyclical troughs.

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained strong VLGC rates, high utilization and continued special dividends lift NAV toward analyst highs; robust TCEs drive re-rating.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-09

Base target

$34

p=60%

Bull target

$41

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Special dividend / capital return announcement
Freight/charter-rate environment for VLGCs
Sustained strong VLGC rates, high utilization and continued special dividends lift NAV toward analyst highs; robust TCEs drive re-rating.

BearKey bullets

Dividend reduction or suspension
Macroeconomic slowdown reducing LPG trade volumes
Sharp VLGC charter-rate collapse

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings / dividend announcement

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $34 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +2% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull +2% · Base -15% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $41 (p=20%)Base Target: $34 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautiously constructive: sell-side medians cluster slightly above the anchor supporting modest upside. Market focus remains on quarterly guidance, spot-rate signals and dividend cadence; coverage is limited and short-term tone is rate-sensitive.

As of 2026-02-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained strong VLGC rates, high utilization and continued special dividends lift NAV toward analyst highs; robust TCEs drive re-rating.

Bear Case

Prolonged weak charter rates, vessel oversupply or demand shock reduce TCEs, force dividend cuts and compress multiples toward cyclical troughs.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Special dividend / capital return announcement
Freight/charter-rate environment for VLGCs

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-09Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$34.06

Range (USD)

$26.26 - $41.00

Count

Query: Dorian LPG Ltd Common (LPG) analyst consensus price target high low average

Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 3 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Dorian LPG Ltd is 34.75, with a high estimate of 39 and a low estimate of 31 ...
Open source
Dorian LPG Ltd.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Spread / Average Target. +12.60%. High Price Target. 39.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +32.07%. Low Price Target. 31.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +4.98% ...
Extracted: $39.00, $31.00Open source
Dorian LPG Ltd. Analyst Estimates
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $41.00. Median, $34.50. Low, $31.00. Average, $35.50. Current Price, $30.06. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. LPG will report 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $41.00, $34.50, $31.00, $35.50, $30.06Open source
Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #4
Analyst Insights: LPG. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 31.00 Low. 33.33 Average ... DORIAN LPG LTD has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of ...
Open source
Dorian LPG (LPG) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #5
The average price target is $31.00 with a high forecast of $31.00 and a low forecast of $31.00. The average price target represents a 4.31% change from the last ...
Extracted: $31.00Open source
LPG Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Dorian ...
Search result #6
Wall Street analysts forecast LPG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LPG is ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $40 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +2% · Base -15% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-10
Next quarterly earnings / dividend announcement
Quarterly results and any dividend guidance typically move sentiment and short-term price; date estimated to reporting-window end due to no published date.
Prob 70.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Special dividend / capital return announcement
2026-05-10
Company has a history of variable special dividends; an announced payout or buyback would be positive, omission or cut would be negative.
Prob 30% • Move 8% • Priced-in 20%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Freight/charter-rate environment for VLGCs
2027-02-09
Sustained improvement (or deterioration) in VLGC charter rates drives TCE and free cash flow over the next year; material to NAV and dividend capacity.
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Dividend reduction or suspension
Macroeconomic slowdown reducing LPG trade volumes
Sharp VLGC charter-rate collapse
Vessel incident or regulatory fuel-cost shock

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NVGS	Navigator Holdings — global gas carrier with fleet/market exposure similar to LPG; useful comp for VLGC demand cycles.
TNK	Teekay Tankers — product/crude tanker operator often used as a shipping-cycle comparator for charter-rate sensitivity.
TRMD	TORM plc — product tanker operator with comparable exposure to short-term charter-rate swings and dividend policy dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Dorian LPG Ltd Common (LPG) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-09