KRMN

AI Memo

Karman

As of 2026-01-29/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

MDA SHIELD IDIQ inclusion • 2026-01-27

Expected move: +118%

Biggest risk

Bear: Execution or integration delays, contract repricing, or material downgrades pull sentiment down and compress valuation toward published lows; small‑cap liquidity could amplify selloffs.

Invalidation

Break below $40 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: MDA inclusion and successful Seemann integration drive backlog-led revenue upgrades and multiple expansion toward the analyst high (~$130), supported by steady defense procurement.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-29

Base target

$105

p=60%

Bull target

$130

p=25%

Bear target

$40

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst revisions & fund flows
Bull: MDA inclusion and successful Seemann integration drive backlog-led revenue upgrades and multiple expansion toward the analyst high (~$130), supported by steady defense procurement.
ANCHOR: {"price": 115.29, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-28T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true I set the base target near the analyst median (median = $105.275) while keeping the bull at the published high ($130) and a conservative bear above the reported low to reflect balance‑sheet and program optionality.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition integration failure or unexpected costs
Contract termination or repricing
Supply-chain or manufacturing delays for defense programs

WatchKey bullets

MDA SHIELD IDIQ inclusion

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $105 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +170% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +170% · Base +118% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $130 (p=25%)Base Target: $105 (p=60%)Bear Target: $40 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously positive after the MDA award and Seemann acquisition, with filings and headlines driving near-term buying [#NEWS-4] [#NEWS-8]. Analyst coverage is active but mixed — raised targets coexist with lower forecasts, creating a bifurcated consensus [#SERP-1] [#SERP-2]. Overall sentiment is constructive but execution-sensitive.

As of 2026-01-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: MDA inclusion and successful Seemann integration drive backlog-led revenue upgrades and multiple expansion toward the analyst high (~$130), supported by steady defense procurement.

Bear Case

Bear: Execution or integration delays, contract repricing, or material downgrades pull sentiment down and compress valuation toward published lows; small‑cap liquidity could amplify selloffs.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst revisions & fund flows

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-29Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$105.28

Range (USD)

$37.00 - $130.00

Count

Query: Karman Holdings Inc Common (KRMN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Karman Holdings Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:KRMN
Search result #1
Karman Holdings Inc has a consensus price target of $92.9 based on the ratings of 11 analysts. The high is $125 issued by Citigroup on January 22, 2026.
Extracted: $92.90, $125.00Open source
Karman (KRMN) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #2
According to the 11 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Karman, the average price target is $103.33. The highest price target for KRMN is $130.00, ...
Extracted: $103.33, $130.00Open source
KRMN Stock Forecast - Karman Holdings Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KRMN is 89.25 USD with a low forecast of 37.37 USD and a high forecast of 120.75 USD.
Extracted: $89.25, $37.37, $120.75Open source
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #4
Analyst Keybanc. Rating Action Maintains. Rating Overweight. Price Action Raises. Price Target 80 -> 122. View More. Statistics: KRMN. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
KRMN | Karman Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings – WSJ
Search result #5
Stock Price Target KRMN. High, $130.00. Median, $118.00. Low, $37.00. Average, $107.22. Current Price, $109.87. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $130.00, $118.00, $37.00, $107.22, $109.87Open source
Karman Holdings Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
Consensus Karman Holdings Inc. Equities. KRMN. US4859241048. Aerospace ... Average target price. 88.29USD. Spread / Average Target. -16.88%. High Price Target.
Extracted: $88.29Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$130 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$105 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=15% prob

Price $48 as of 2026-07-31

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 17%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +170% · Base +118% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-01-27
MDA SHIELD IDIQ inclusion
Karman Space & Defense was named to the MDA $151B SHIELD IDIQ (award announced 2026-01-27). Inclusion supports near-term program revenue and backlog expansion [#NEWS-4].
Prob 95.00% • Move 9.00% • Priced-in 55.00%
EVENT2026-04-29
Seemann Composites acquisition
Announced $220M maritime defense acquisition expands Karman's addressable market for naval composites and Navy programs; integration and close expected within the coming quarter [#NEWS-8].
Prob 80.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst revisions & fund flows
2026-04-29
Recent analyst activity (e.g., KeyBanc raise to $122) and mixed consensus targets increase sensitivity to upgrades/downgrades and fund flows; the wide analyst range raises near-term volatility risk [#SERP-2] [#SERP-5].
Prob 70% • Move 7% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Acquisition integration failure or unexpected costs
Contract termination or repricing
Supply-chain or manufacturing delays for defense programs
Wide analyst target dispersion causing volatile flows

Peers

Symbol	Summary
KTOS	Kratos — comparable midsize defense contractor focused on missiles, radars and systems integration; program-level competition and similar government-contract exposure.
RDW	Redwire — adjacent space/defense tech provider; similar small-cap M&A dynamics and program risk.
LHX	L3Harris — larger prime contractor; useful scale benchmark for program management and prime/subcontract dynamics.
AVAV	AeroVironment — niche aerospace/defense solutions with small-contract and commercialization risk analogous to Karman's smaller business lines.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Karman Holdings Inc Common (KRMN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-29

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Symbol

Summary

KTOS

Kratos — comparable midsize defense contractor focused on missiles, radars and systems integration; program-level competition and similar government-contract exposure.

RDW

Redwire — adjacent space/defense tech provider; similar small-cap M&A dynamics and program risk.

LHX

L3Harris — larger prime contractor; useful scale benchmark for program management and prime/subcontract dynamics.

AVAV

AeroVironment — niche aerospace/defense solutions with small-contract and commercialization risk analogous to Karman's smaller business lines.