JILL

Rating buyAI Memo

J.Jill

As of 2026-01-25/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Holiday-season sales update / cadence for FY2026 • 2026-11-30

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

Continued promotional pressure, slower-than-expected inventory normalization, and margin compression lead to downgrades and valuation contraction toward the analyst low (13.79).

Invalidation

Break below $14 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful inventory reduction, sustained comp improvement, and visible margin expansion from SG&A leverage drive earnings upgrades and a multiple re‑rating toward the analyst high (22.05); catalysts and execution create asymmetric upside from the current anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-25

Base target

$17

p=60%

Bull target

$22

p=20%

Bear target

$14

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2026 quarterly earnings release
Execution of margin-recovery / cost-savings initiatives
Successful inventory reduction, sustained comp improvement, and visible margin expansion from SG&A leverage drive earnings upgrades and a multiple re‑rating toward the analyst high (22.05); catalysts and execution create asymmetric upside from the current anchor.

BearKey bullets

Inventory write-downs or slower inventory turnover
Macroeconomic slowdown reducing discretionary apparel spend
Weaker-than-expected holiday demand or promotional escalation

WatchKey bullets

Holiday-season sales update / cadence for FY2026

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $17 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +35% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base +5% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $22 (p=20%)Base Target: $17 (p=60%)Bear Target: $14 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus tilts modestly positive with median targets above the anchor; near-term sentiment is cautious ahead of earnings, while longer-term views hinge on inventory normalization and margin recovery.

As of 2026-01-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Continued promotional pressure, slower-than-expected inventory normalization, and margin compression lead to downgrades and valuation contraction toward the analyst low (13.79).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2026 quarterly earnings release
Execution of margin-recovery / cost-savings initiatives

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$17.13

Range (USD)

$13.79 - $22.05

Count

Query: J.Jill Inc Common (JILL) analyst consensus price target high low average

J.Jill (JILL) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #1
Jill, the average price target is $18.00. The highest price target for JILL is $21.00, while the lowest price target for JILL is $16.00.
Extracted: $18.00, $21.00, $16.00Open source
JJill Inc (JILL) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions
Search result #2
The highest analyst price target is $21.00 ,the lowest forecast is $16.00. The average price target represents 7.46% Increase from the current price of $16.75. ...
Extracted: $21.00, $16.00, $16.75Open source
J.Jill, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #3
Average target price. 18.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. +26.67% ; High Price Target. 21.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +47.78% ; Low Price Target. 16.00USD.
Extracted: $18.00, $21.00, $16.00Open source
J.Jill Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Stock Price Targets. High, $21.00. Median, $17.50. Low, $16.00. Average, $18.00. Current Price, $13.79. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. JILL will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $21.00, $17.50, $16.00, $18.00, $13.79Open source
JILL / J.Jill, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target, Estimates, Predictions
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for J.Jill, Inc. is $17.85. The forecasts range from a low of $15.15 to a high of $22.05. Read More.
Extracted: $17.85, $15.15, $22.05Open source
J. JILL INC(NYSE:JILL) stock Analyst Ratings | ChartMill.com
Search result #6
11 analysts have analysed JILL and the average price target is 17.85 USD. This implies a price increase of 6.57% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $17.85Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=20% prob

Price $16 as of 2026-07-10

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +35% · Base +5% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-11-30
Holiday-season sales update / cadence for FY2026
Holiday sales cadence and promotional intensity will reveal demand and markdown risk; date set to holiday window end (assumption) [#SERP-1].
Prob 60.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2026 quarterly earnings release
2026-04-25
Quarterly report and management commentary on comps and margin recovery; analysts' estimate sets the tone for 12‑month consensus moves [#SERP-4].
Prob 70% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution of margin-recovery / cost-savings initiatives
2027-01-25
Rollout of SG&A and inventory actions; multi-quarter margin upside if execution and inventory normalization succeed [#SERP-3].
Prob 50% • Move 40% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Inventory write-downs or slower inventory turnover
Macroeconomic slowdown reducing discretionary apparel spend
Weaker-than-expected holiday demand or promotional escalation

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TPR	Tapestry — larger apparel/accessory peer; useful for directional trends in consumer spending and inventory management.
M	Macy's — department‑store channel indicator for brick‑and‑mortar traffic and promotional intensity affecting specialty apparel players.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: J.Jill Inc Common (JILL) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-25

AI Stock Memo: JILL - J.Jill - RankAlpha