JAKK

Rating neutralAI Memo

JAKKS Pacific

As of 2026-05-03/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarter must confirm the U.S. rebuild without further margin erosion • 2026-07-29

Expected move: +19%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that North America remains soft, Dolls/Role-Play fell sharply, gross margin compressed, and Q1 losses widened, so investors still need proof that the domestic rebuild can outweigh weaker licensed mix and cautious customers.

Invalidation

Break below $18 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull read is that international growth, stronger Action Play & Collectibles, lower inventory, and a maintained dividend suggest the 2025 stabilization has not broken, even with a seasonally weak quarter.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-03

Base target

$26

p=45%

Bull target

$30

p=25%

Bear target

$18

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Cash balance and dividend support sentiment, but topline proof is still required
International and Action Play momentum can partially offset weaker Dolls and North America
The post-earnings bull read is that international growth, stronger Action Play & Collectibles, lower inventory, and a maintained dividend suggest the 2025 stabilization has not broken, even with a seasonally weak quarter.

BearKey bullets

Customer concentration remains high: Walmart and Target together accounted for 50.4% of Q1 2026 net sales in the 10-Q [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Gross margin fell to 33.4% from 34.4% and adjusted EBITDA moved to a small loss, showing limited operating cushion if product mix or demand worsens [#PR-2026-04-30].
North America net sales were down 16% in Q1 and management said U.S.

WatchKey bullets

Next quarter must confirm the U.S.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $26 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +38% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +19% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $30 (p=25%)Base Target: $26 (p=45%)Bear Target: $18 (p=30%)

Commentary

This T+3 follow-up remains a cautious monitoring setup. Primary company sources confirmed a softer Q1 on revenue, margin, and earnings, but also a solid cash position, inventory control, and better international mix. Immediate market reaction was constructive: accessible secondary market data showed JAKK closing at $24.06 on May 1, 2026, up 10.57% from the prior close, and accessible analyst coverage showed only a thin-breadth Buy reiteration at a $30 target rather than a broad revision wave. With low coverage and limited post-print estimate breadth, confidence should stay moderate at best.

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Cash balance and dividend support sentiment, but topline proof is still required
International and Action Play momentum can partially offset weaker Dolls and North America

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=30% prob

Price $22 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 17%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +19% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-29
Next quarter must confirm the U.S. rebuild without further margin erosion
Q1 2026 net sales fell 6% year over year, gross margin slipped 100 bps to 33.4%, and adjusted EBITDA turned slightly negative, while management said U.S. customers remain cautious and North America net sales were down 16% even as it said it is rebuilding the disrupted domestic base [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Prob 65.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Cash balance and dividend support sentiment, but topline proof is still required
2026-06-29
Cash including restricted cash rose to about $64.0 million at March 31, 2026, inventory fell versus year-end, and the board declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend payable June 29, 2026, which helps downside framing but does not by itself solve the revenue and margin pressure seen in Q1 [#PR-2026-04-30] [#8-K-2026-05-01] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Prob 70% • Move 5% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

International and Action Play momentum can partially offset weaker Dolls and North America
2026-10-31
Management said international Q1 sales rose to $29.0 million from $21.0 million and Action Play & Collectibles sales increased to $55.3 million from $42.9 million, while the 10-Q also showed Europe up to $17.4 million from $11.8 million; that mix shift is the clearest operating offset to weaker Dolls/Role-Play and softer U.S. demand [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Prob 55% • Move 15% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Customer concentration remains high: Walmart and Target together accounted for 50.4% of Q1 2026 net sales in the 10-Q [#10-Q-2026-05-01].
Gross margin fell to 33.4% from 34.4% and adjusted EBITDA moved to a small loss, showing limited operating cushion if product mix or demand worsens [#PR-2026-04-30].
North America net sales were down 16% in Q1 and management said U.S. customers remain cautious, so the domestic recovery remains unproven [#PR-2026-04-30].
The company disclosed a potential tariff refund claim after a Supreme Court-related process change, but timing, eligibility, and amount are uncertain and no receivable was recognized as of March 31, 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-01].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FNKO	Closest public comp in the packet because both depend on licensed entertainment IP and retailer sell-through; JAKK currently looks somewhat stronger on cash and dividend support, but both remain exposed to release cadence and consumer demand volatility.
ESCA	Less direct on licensing but a reasonable small-cap consumer products benchmark for balance-sheet discipline and seasonal sell-through; useful mainly as a valuation and execution context peer rather than a perfect operating match.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-03

AI Stock Memo: JAKK - JAKKS Pacific - RankAlpha