AI Stock Memo: IAG - IAMGOLD - RankAlpha

IAG

Rating sellAI Memo

IAMGOLD

As of 2026-01-29/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Investor conference call (operational detail) • 2026-02-12

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

Execution setbacks at Côté or Westwood, rising AISC or weaker gold prices strain cash flow and re-rate the stock toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $11 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Smooth Côté ramp, improved Westwood throughput and a stronger gold price drive higher free cash flow and valuation, pushing the stock toward the analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-29

Base target

$19

p=60%

Bull target

$25

p=20%

Bear target

$11

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2025 results & 2026 guidance
Côté project milestones
Smooth Côté ramp, improved Westwood throughput and a stronger gold price drive higher free cash flow and valuation, pushing the stock toward the analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Côté project delays or cost overruns
Gold price decline
Liquidity / refinancing or dilution risk

WatchKey bullets

Investor conference call (operational detail)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $19 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +39% / -39%

Vs latest close: Bull +39% · Base +5% · Bear -39%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $25 (p=20%)Base Target: $19 (p=60%)Bear Target: $11 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautious: management published guidance but the analyst median sits below the broker last, indicating market skepticism on near-term execution. Investor focus is on the conference call and the late‑February filings for clarity on AISC, capex and reserves [#PR-2026-01-28][#SERP-1].

As of 2026-01-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Smooth Côté ramp, improved Westwood throughput and a stronger gold price drive higher free cash flow and valuation, pushing the stock toward the analyst high.

Bear Case

Execution setbacks at Côté or Westwood, rising AISC or weaker gold prices strain cash flow and re-rate the stock toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2025 results & 2026 guidance
Côté project milestones

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-29Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$18.85

Range (USD)

$10.97 - $24.78

Count

Query: IAMGOLD Corp Common (IAG) analyst consensus price target high low average

IAMGOLD Corp (IAG) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #1
The average price target is $19.70 with a high forecast of $24.78 and a low forecast of $15.00. The average price target represents a -5.97% change from the ...
Extracted: $19.70, $24.78, $15.00Open source
Iamgold (IAG) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2025
Search result #2
According to the 10 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Iamgold, the average price target is $17.25. The highest price target for IAG is $23.00, ...
Extracted: $17.25, $23.00Open source
IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) Stock Price, News, Quote & ...
Search result #3
Sector Avg. 100 High. Research reports: IAG. View more. Raising target price to $24.00. IAMGOLD CORP has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of ...
Extracted: $24.00Open source
IAMGOLD CORP(NYSE:IAG) stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #4
14 analysts have analysed IAG and the average price target is 17.33 USD. This implies a price decrease of -1.6% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $17.33Open source
Iamgold (IAG) Price Targets
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $18.00 to a high of $24.57. The average price target represents a decline of 1.36% from the last closing price of $21.33.
Extracted: $18.00, $24.57, $21.33Open source
IAG - IAMGOLD Corporation (NYSE) - Share Price and News
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for IAMGOLD Corporation is $17.65. The forecasts range from a low of $13.23 to a high of $22.26. A stock's price target is the ...
Extracted: $17.65, $13.23, $22.26Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=20% prob

Price $18 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +39% · Base +5% · Bear -39%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-12
Investor conference call (operational detail)
Management call to discuss results, Westwood ramp and Côté progress; operational clarity could re-rate the stock [#PR-2026-01-28].
Prob 85.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2025 results & 2026 guidance
2026-01-28
Press release updated FY2025 results and 2026 guidance; market will reprice on AISC, capex and reserve/development commentary [#PR-2026-01-28].
Prob 100% • Move -3% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Côté project milestones
2027-01-29
Milestone, permitting or schedule updates at Côté would materially affect valuation; timing is uncertain so a 12‑month horizon is used absent firm public dates [#PR-2026-01-28].
Prob 55% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Côté project delays or cost overruns
Gold price decline
Liquidity / refinancing or dilution risk
Regulatory or jurisdictional setbacks
Westwood ramp-up underperformance

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GOLD	Barrick — global senior; scale and portfolio comparator.
NEM	Newmont — large-cap producer; macro and operational benchmark.
AEM	Agnico Eagle — North American senior with steady grades and reliable execution.
KGC	Kinross — higher-cost producer; useful for downside/AISC sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: IAMGOLD Corp Common (IAG) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-29