HWKN

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Hawkins

As of 2026-05-16/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-earnings reset hinges on Water Treatment growth offsetting acquisition EPS drag • 2026-05-13

Expected move: +8%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that reported EPS still declined despite record sales because acquisition costs, amortization, interest expense, and earnout accounting remain heavy, while Food & Health Sciences was flat to down with competitive pricing pressure; delayed or absent analyst upgrades after the print keeps conviction muted.

Invalidation

Break below $145 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The strongest bull read is that fiscal 2026 crossed $1 billion of revenue, Water Treatment grew 22%, adjusted EBITDA rose 6%, operating cash flow rose 30%, and management still guided qualitatively to fiscal 2027 revenue, operating income, and EPS growth while targeting lower leverage [#8-K-2026-05-13].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-16

Base target

$170

p=50%

Bull target

$188

p=25%

Bear target

$145

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

T+3 earnings digestion remains mixed because consensus revision evidence is thin
Fiscal 2027 deleveraging and WaterSurplus integration are the main upside path
The strongest bull read is that fiscal 2026 crossed $1 billion of revenue, Water Treatment grew 22%, adjusted EBITDA rose 6%, operating cash flow rose 30%, and management still guided qualitatively to fiscal 2027 revenue, operating income, and EPS growth while targeting lower leverage [#8-K-2026-05-13].

BearKey bullets

Acquisition-related amortization, interest expense, and earnout accretion reduced Q4 and full-year EPS despite revenue growth [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Analyst coverage and confirmed post-print revision data appear limited, increasing the risk of valuation signals being noisy rather than decisive.
Debt rose to $244.0 million at fiscal year-end and leverage remains above the prior year, leaving execution dependent on successful integration and cash generation [#8-K-2026-05-13].

WatchKey bullets

Post-earnings reset hinges on Water Treatment growth offsetting acquisition EPS drag

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $170 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +20% / -8%

Vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base +8% · Bear -8%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $188 (p=25%)Base Target: $170 (p=50%)Bear Target: $145 (p=25%)

Commentary

Near-term tone is mixed-to-slightly positive on fundamentals but not emphatic. The company delivered record sales and cash flow on May 13, 2026, yet EPS was lower and trusted secondary services point to a modest consensus EPS miss. By May 16, 2026, the stock was $158.98, suggesting no strong post-print upside breakout had been established, and clear analyst revision follow-through remained limited. With no usable social-coverage packet and only light headline volume, this remains a cautious post-earnings monitoring setup rather than a confirmed sentiment inflection.

As of 2026-05-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

T+3 earnings digestion remains mixed because consensus revision evidence is thin
Fiscal 2027 deleveraging and WaterSurplus integration are the main upside path

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$188 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$170 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$145 / p=25% prob

Price $157 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 8%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base +8% · Bear -8%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-13
Post-earnings reset hinges on Water Treatment growth offsetting acquisition EPS drag
Fiscal Q4/FY2026 showed record Q4 sales, FY sales above $1.08 billion, and 22% annual Water Treatment growth, but Q4 EPS fell to $0.74 because acquisition-related amortization, interest, and earnout accretion rose; management still said fiscal 2027 should grow revenue, operating income, and EPS [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Prob 70.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

T+3 earnings digestion remains mixed because consensus revision evidence is thin
2026-05-20
Trusted secondary coverage indicates a modest Q4 EPS miss versus consensus while revenue appears to have outperformed, but by May 16, 2026 clear post-print analyst target or rating revisions were still sparse, keeping the setup in monitoring mode rather than confirming a stronger re-rating.
Prob 60% • Move -3% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Fiscal 2027 deleveraging and WaterSurplus integration are the main upside path
2027-05-16
Management said strong operating cash flow should support debt paydown toward roughly 1x adjusted EBITDA leverage by fiscal 2027 year-end while continuing growth investments, with Water Treatment now 50% of revenue and 56% of operating income after six fiscal 2026 acquisitions [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Prob 55% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Acquisition-related amortization, interest expense, and earnout accretion reduced Q4 and full-year EPS despite revenue growth [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Analyst coverage and confirmed post-print revision data appear limited, increasing the risk of valuation signals being noisy rather than decisive.
Debt rose to $244.0 million at fiscal year-end and leverage remains above the prior year, leaving execution dependent on successful integration and cash generation [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Food & Health Sciences showed softness in food and nutrition end markets and competitive pricing pressure, which weighed on segment profitability [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Rising material costs increased the LIFO reserve and pressured gross profit comparability [#8-K-2026-05-13].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GEF	Greif is a same-sector, similar-size materials name from the packet, but it is a packaging company and not a close operating peer to Hawkins' water treatment and specialty ingredients mix; useful mainly as a loose valuation check.
SMG	Scotts Miracle-Gro is another packet-provided same-sector market-cap comp, but its lawn and garden exposure makes it only an adjacent materials comparison rather than a direct benchmark for Hawkins' acquisition-led water treatment model.
CGAU	Centerra Gold appears in the packet on sector/market-cap similarity only and is not an operating peer; its inclusion underscores that the available peer set is loose, which lowers valuation-confidence.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-16

AI Stock Memo: HWKN - Hawkins - RankAlpha