HURC

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Hurco Companies

As of 2026-05-29/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

U.S. orders improved, but sales still fell in the latest confirmed quarter • 2026-05-29

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

Sales were still down 8% YoY, SG&A rose, and the company remained loss-making. The 10-K also warns that cyclicality, tariffs, and trade-policy shifts can quickly compress demand and margins. [#10-Q-2026-03-06] [#10-K-2026-01-09]

Invalidation

Break below $14 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The latest confirmed quarter showed better U.S. order momentum, a 5% overall order increase, and gross margin improvement to 19% of sales, while cash remained about $48.0m and working capital about $169.5m. If order recovery broadens, Hurco has room for operating leverage. [#10-Q-2026-03-06]

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$17

p=45%

Bull target

$20

p=25%

Bear target

$14

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Tariff, cyclicality, and short backlog visibility remain the structural overhang
The latest confirmed quarter showed better U.S.
order momentum, a 5% overall order increase, and gross margin improvement to 19% of sales, while cash remained about $48.0m and working capital about $169.5m.

BearKey bullets

Foreign-exchange moves and regional weakness can distort reported sales and pressure margins, as seen in the latest quarter's declines in Europe and Asia Pacific.
[#10-Q-2026-03-06]
Machine-tool demand is highly cyclical and the company says demand can change abruptly; backlog is short, limiting forward visibility.

WatchKey bullets

U.S.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $17 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +14% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base +0% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $20 (p=25%)Base Target: $17 (p=45%)Bear Target: $14 (p=30%)

Commentary

Cautious monitoring view: the latest retrievable company evidence still points to modest order improvement against a weak sales backdrop, but I could not confirm a same-day May 29, 2026 earnings release/8-K or any post-print analyst revisions in the primary sources retrieved here. The tape reaction therefore remains muted/uncertain in this memo, and the evidence gap should keep confidence low.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Tariff, cyclicality, and short backlog visibility remain the structural overhang

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=30% prob

Price $17 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base +0% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-29
U.S. orders improved, but sales still fell in the latest confirmed quarter
Hurco's Jan. 31, 2026 quarter showed orders up 5% YoY, Americas orders up 18%, gross profit up to 19% of sales, and cash still around $48.0m; however sales fell 8% and the company posted a $3.5m net loss. [#10-Q-2026-03-06]
Prob 58.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Tariff, cyclicality, and short backlog visibility remain the structural overhang
2026-07-31
The 2025 10-K flags the cyclical machine-tool market, roughly 45-day typical backlog, tariffs/import costs, and foreign-exchange volatility as material risks; a durable rerating likely needs a broader order recovery, not just one better quarter. [#10-K-2026-01-09]
Prob 70% • Move 7% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Foreign-exchange moves and regional weakness can distort reported sales and pressure margins, as seen in the latest quarter's declines in Europe and Asia Pacific. [#10-Q-2026-03-06]
Machine-tool demand is highly cyclical and the company says demand can change abruptly; backlog is short, limiting forward visibility. [#10-K-2026-01-09]
Tariffs and other trade-policy shifts can increase costs and reduce demand, especially given Hurco's international footprint. [#10-K-2026-01-09]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EMR	Broader industrial automation/electrification comp with much larger scale and steadier margins; useful for industrial tone, but not a true machine-tool peer.
ETN	Diversified industrial/electrification peer with stronger quality and balance-sheet profile; highlights how much cyclicality Hurco carries versus larger industrial names.
PH	Higher-quality motion/control exposure and a more diversified industrial model; helpful as a valuation anchor, though Hurco's small-cap machine-tool exposure is much more cyclically exposed.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: HURC - Hurco Companies - RankAlpha