HUN

Rating neutralAI Memo

Huntsman

As of 2026-05-03/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 execution must show pricing offsets feedstock and logistics pressure • 2026-07-31

Expected move: -9%

Biggest risk

The bearish read is that underlying profitability is still fragile: net loss widened sharply, gross profit fell, Polyurethanes margins compressed, Performance Products faced lower volumes and pricing plus Saudi disruptions, and the recovery case depends on management price increases sticking in a volatile macro and feedstock environment.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bullish read is that Q1 absorbed a feedstock shock but still delivered flat revenue, modest EBITDA growth, volume improvement in Polyurethanes, double-digit Advanced Materials growth, improved free cash burn versus the prior year, and explicit management commentary pointing to better Q2 profitability from pricing and volume.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-03

Base target

$14

p=1%

Bull target

$17

p=0%

Bear target

$10

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings Q2 profitability step-up is the near-term trading hinge
Petfurdo expansion and aerospace-led Advanced Materials growth can improve mix
The bullish read is that Q1 absorbed a feedstock shock but still delivered flat revenue, modest EBITDA growth, volume improvement in Polyurethanes, double-digit Advanced Materials growth, improved free cash burn versus the prior year, and explicit management commentary pointing to better Q2 profitability from pricing and volume.

BearKey bullets

Feedstock inflation and volatility, especially benzene and European natural gas, could erode the expected Q2 margin recovery.
Huntsman remained loss-making in Q1 and used $91 million of free cash flow, so a slower recovery could pressure sentiment despite roughly $0.9 billion of cash plus unused borrowing capacity.
Performance Products faced lower demand, competitive pricing pressure, and March shipment disruptions at the Saudi joint venture.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 execution must show pricing offsets feedstock and logistics pressure

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=1%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -35%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -9% · Bear -35%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=0%)Base Target: $14 (p=1%)Bear Target: $10 (p=0%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is solid, but the forward thesis is still mostly a monitoring view. The immediate market reaction was favorable, with HUN up about 8.45% on April 30, 2026 after the earnings release and still near $14.41 on May 1, suggesting investors focused on the Q2 profitability step-up message. However, checked analyst-revision visibility remained thin as of this T+3 follow-up, and the stock already trades above the packet's summarized analyst target level, so missing post-print revisions should not be read as confirmation.

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings Q2 profitability step-up is the near-term trading hinge
Petfurdo expansion and aerospace-led Advanced Materials growth can improve mix

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=0% prob

Price $15 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -9% · Bear -35%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

52.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

50.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-31
Q2 execution must show pricing offsets feedstock and logistics pressure
Management cited March feedstock volatility, especially benzene and European natural gas, and said it raised prices across products and regions to protect margins; the next material check is whether Q2 margins actually improve despite lower Polyurethanes margins, Saudi shipment disruption in Performance Products, and still-weak competitive pricing. [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Prob 45.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings Q2 profitability step-up is the near-term trading hinge
2026-07-31
Huntsman reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.42 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $73 million, and said it expects a Q2 2026 step-up in profitability from higher volumes and margin expansion tied to worldwide pricing actions; the stock rose about 8.45% on April 30, 2026 before holding near $14.41 on May 1, 2026, so some of that recovery narrative is already reflected. [#PR-2026-04-30] [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Petfurdo expansion and aerospace-led Advanced Materials growth can improve mix
2026-12-31
Huntsman opened its expanded Performance Products facility in Petfurdo, Hungary in March 2026, increasing capacity and manufacturing flexibility, while Q1 Advanced Materials revenue grew more than 10% with strength in aerospace, power, and automotive; that supports a longer-duration mix and utilization improvement thesis if end-market demand holds. [#PR-2026-03-18] [#PR-2026-04-30]
Prob 40% • Move 11% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Feedstock inflation and volatility, especially benzene and European natural gas, could erode the expected Q2 margin recovery.
Huntsman remained loss-making in Q1 and used $91 million of free cash flow, so a slower recovery could pressure sentiment despite roughly $0.9 billion of cash plus unused borrowing capacity.
Performance Products faced lower demand, competitive pricing pressure, and March shipment disruptions at the Saudi joint venture.
Polyurethanes volumes improved but margins still declined year over year, so pricing may lag raw-material pressure.
The Moers, Germany maleic anhydride closure reduced Performance Products volumes and keeps restructuring/execution risk in view.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CC	Chemours is a loose same-sector peer by market cap, but its titanium technologies and fluoroproduct mix makes it an imperfect read-through for Huntsman's polyurethanes and specialty amines exposure.
FMC	FMC is also a loose peer; its crop-protection profile is less cyclical than Huntsman's industrial chemical mix, limiting direct comparability but still useful for balance-sheet and chemicals-cycle sentiment.
MTX	Minerals Technologies is another loose materials comp by size, though Huntsman's earnings sensitivity is more tied to feedstocks, pricing, and industrial demand than MTX's specialty minerals model.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-03

AI Stock Memo: HUN - Huntsman - RankAlpha