AI Stock Memo: HTLD - Heartland Express - RankAlpha

HTLD

Rating sellAI Memo

Heartland Express

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings release • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -38%

Biggest risk

Prolonged weak spot pricing, higher diesel or interest costs, or utilization declines compress margins and cash flow, leaving valuation near the analyst low of $8.00.

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Freight demand recovery, tighter capacity, and cost initiatives lift volumes and margins above consensus, supporting upside to $12.00.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

$12

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings release
Operational update: fleet utilization & pricing commentary
Freight-demand / industry cycle recovery

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on utilization/cost programs
Regulatory or safety-related downtime
Rising fuel and labor costs

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 10.06, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-30T16:32:59+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Base target $9.30 equals the analyst median and sits inside the surveyed low–high ($8.00–$17.00) [#SERP-1][#SERP-3].

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $9 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: -20% / -47%

Vs latest close: Bull -20% · Base -38% · Bear -47%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $12 (p=20%)Base Target: $9 (p=50%)Bear Target: $8 (p=30%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautious: analyst medians sit below the broker-last anchor and data feeds show a sell-to-moderate-sell consensus [#SERP-1][#SERP-7]. Near-term focus is on margin pressure and utilization; a minority of analysts cite upside if pricing normalizes [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Freight demand recovery, tighter capacity, and cost initiatives lift volumes and margins above consensus, supporting upside to $12.00.

Bear Case

Prolonged weak spot pricing, higher diesel or interest costs, or utilization declines compress margins and cash flow, leaving valuation near the analyst low of $8.00.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings release
Operational update: fleet utilization & pricing commentary
Freight-demand / industry cycle recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$9.30

Range (USD)

$8.00 - $17.00

Count

Query: Heartland Express Inc Common (HTLD) analyst consensus price target high low average

Heartland Express (HTLD) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #1
According to the 6 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Heartland Express, the average price target is $9.75. The highest price target for HTLD is $12.00, ...
Extracted: $9.75, $12.00Open source
HTLD Stock Forecast - Heartland Express Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #2
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTLD is 8.47 USD with a low forecast of 8.08 USD and a high forecast of 9.45 USD.
Extracted: $8.47, $8.08, $9.45Open source
Heartland Express Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NASDAQ:HTLD
Search result #3
Heartland Express Inc has a consensus price target of $10.33 based on the ratings of 6 analysts. The high is $17 issued by Stephens & Co. on August 1, 2023.
Extracted: $10.33, $17.00Open source
Heartland Express (HTLD) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $8.00 to a high of $12.00. The average price target represents a decline of 9.97% from the last closing price of $10.33.
Extracted: $8.00, $12.00, $10.33Open source
Heartland Express Inc. Analyst Estimates - HTLD - MarketWatch
Search result #5
Stock Price Targets. High, $9.00. Median, $8.00. Low, $8.00. Average, $8.30. Current Price, $9.03. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. HTLD will report 2025 earnings on ...
Extracted: $9.00, $8.00, $8.30, $9.03Open source
Heartland Express, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
Consensus Heartland Express, Inc. Equities. HTLD. US4223471040. Ground Freight ... Average target price. 9.300USD. Spread / Average Target. -10.49%. High ...
Extracted: $9.30Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=30% prob

Price $15 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 20%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -20% · Base -38% · Bear -47%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings release
2026-04-30
Quarterly results and guidance that could revise freight demand and margin outlook; market consensus pricing below current anchor increases downside risk [#SERP-1].
Prob 75% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%
Operational update: fleet utilization & pricing commentary
2026-04-30
Management commentary on utilization, contract pricing, and cost controls that would materially affect near-term margins and cash flow [#SERP-3].
Prob 60% • Move 10% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Freight-demand / industry cycle recovery
2027-01-30
Sector-wide demand recovery or sustained weakness will drive medium-term valuation; timeline uncertain but plan assumes a one-year view for structural recovery [#SERP-6].
Prob 50% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution risk on utilization/cost programs
Regulatory or safety-related downtime
Rising fuel and labor costs
Sustained weakness in freight demand

Peers

Symbol	Summary
JBHT	Large-cap intermodal and contract logistics peer with diversified services; useful operational benchmark.
KNX	National truckload carrier peer; comparable on fleet utilization and pricing sensitivity.
ODFL	Premium LTL operator with stronger pricing power; contrasts on margin durability.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Heartland Express Inc Common (HTLD) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30