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HTLD

Heartland ExpressD
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Freight demand recovery, tighter capacity, and cost initiatives lift volumes and margins above consensus, supporting upside to $12.00.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Execution risk on utilization/cost programs
Momentum
23
Value
46
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.30 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.20
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d -10.6
Value46 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +7.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk on utilization/cost programs
  • • Regulatory or safety-related downtime
  • • Prolonged weak spot pricing, higher diesel or interest costs, or utilization declines compress margins and cash flow, leaving valuation near the analyst low of $8.00.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
23
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.6
Δ21d
-18.2
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.7
Δ21d
+10.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 23.4 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 47.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$787.25M
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
77.33M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.1
P/S (TTM)
0.88
P/FCF (TTM)
25.33
Rev YoY
-12.5%
EPS YoY
-198.3%
Gross Margin
-0.2%
Op Margin
-6.7%
Net Debt
$142.7M
Current Ratio
1.58
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data