AI Stock Memo: HOMB - Home BancShares - RankAlpha

HOMB

AI Memo

Home BancShares

As of 2026-02-07/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Potential M&A / capital action (assumed window end) • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +15%

Biggest risk

Deposit-cost pressure or CRE-driven credit deterioration compresses multiples toward the analyst low (27.91).

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Margin expansion, stable credit, and potential M&A or multiple re-rating drive upside toward the analyst high (36.00).

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-07

Base target

$31

p=60%

Bull target

$36

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Interest-rate / margin normalization
Margin expansion, stable credit, and potential M&A or multiple re-rating drive upside toward the analyst high (36.00).

BearKey bullets

Elevated commercial real estate or local commercial loan losses
Execution risk or dilution from M&A/capital actions
Regulatory/capital surprises in primary markets

WatchKey bullets

Potential M&A / capital action (assumed window end)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $31 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +34% / +4%

Vs latest close: Bull +34% · Base +15% · Bear +4%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $36 (p=20%)Base Target: $31 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst medians cluster near the current price, implying limited upside in the base case and mixed-to-cautious sentiment. Market focus is on NIM trajectory and credit indicators; positive NIM developments would materially improve sentiment, while deposit-cost or credit shocks would quickly flip tone [#SERP-2][#SERP-4].

As of 2026-02-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Margin expansion, stable credit, and potential M&A or multiple re-rating drive upside toward the analyst high (36.00).

Bear Case

Deposit-cost pressure or CRE-driven credit deterioration compresses multiples toward the analyst low (27.91).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Interest-rate / margin normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-07Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$31.00

Range (USD)

$27.91 - $36.00

Count

Query: Home BancShares Inc Common (HOMB) analyst consensus price target high low average

Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (HOMB)
Search result #1
Compared to Estimates, Home BancShares (HOMB) Q4 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics ... Analyst Price Targets. 31.00. 33.14 Average. 30.59 Current. 36.00 High ...
Open source
Home BancShares (HOMB) Price Targets
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $30.00 to a high of $36.00. The average price target represents an increase of 14.89% from the last closing price of $28.94.
Extracted: $30.00, $36.00, $28.94Open source
Consensus Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Average target price. 33.25USD. Spread / Average Target. +19.13%. High Price Target. 36.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +28.99%. Low Price Target. 30.00USD.
Extracted: $33.25, $36.00, $30.00Open source
Home BancShares Inc. Analyst Estimates - HOMB - MarketWatch
Search result #4
2.45. Median PE on Next FY Estimate, N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $36.00. Median, $33.00. Low, $30.00. Average, $33.25. Current Price, $27.91. Yearly Numbers.
Extracted: $36.00, $33.00, $30.00, $33.25, $27.91Open source
HOMB | Home BancShares Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings – WSJ
Search result #5
Stock Price Target HOMB. High, $36.00. Median, $33.50. Low, $31.00. Average, $33.38. Current Price, $28.31. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $36.00, $33.50, $31.00, $33.38, $28.31Open source
Home BancShares Consensus Estimates (HOMB)
Search result #6
According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Home BancShares is 33.375, with a high estimate of 36 and a low estimate of ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $27 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +34% · Base +15% · Bear +4%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Potential M&A / capital action (assumed window end)
Regional consolidation or capital actions would reprice shares materially; no firm timing — conservative window-end assumption used [#SERP-3].
Prob 25.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
2026-05-08
Quarterly results will reveal loan growth, net interest income, and provisioning versus expectations; date estimated per short-window rule [#SERP-1][#SERP-4].
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Interest-rate / margin normalization
2027-02-07
Multi-quarter Fed and deposit-cost path drives NIM and long-term profitability; analysts note valuation sensitivity to these assumptions [#SERP-2].
Prob 70% • Move 15% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Elevated commercial real estate or local commercial loan losses
Execution risk or dilution from M&A/capital actions
Regulatory/capital surprises in primary markets
Rising deposit betas or rapid deposit outflows compressing NIM

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ZION	Regional bank with similar commercial lending exposure; useful comparator for credit-cycle sensitivity.
CFR	Diversified Texas-based bank; comparable franchise and deposit mix for relative profitability context.
FHN	Larger regional with commercial banking focus; reflects market reaction to regional M&A and rate cycles.
RF	Broader regional bank exposure; serves as a benchmark for funding-cost and deposit-flow trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Home BancShares Inc Common (HOMB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-07