AI Stock Memo: HIVE - HIVE Digital - RankAlpha

HIVE

Rating neutralAI Memo

HIVE Digital

As of 2026-06-03/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2026 top-line and HPC scaling remained strong • 2026-06-02

Expected move: +35%

Biggest risk

The Q4 print showed the model's fragility: mining revenue fell sequentially, Adjusted EBITDA was negative, and GAAP losses remained large. Bitcoin price, network difficulty, capex intensity, and timing risk around GPU deployment can quickly offset the apparent top-line momentum.

Invalidation

Break below $3 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

HIVE delivered a sharp FY2026 revenue ramp, BUZZ HPC revenue nearly doubled, and gross operating margin expanded to 36%, so a sustained Paraguay buildout plus improving HPC utilization could support a re-rating from a growth-and-operating-leverage story rather than only a Bitcoin beta.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-06-03

Base target

p=42%

Bull target

p=28%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 hashprice pressure and negative profitability drove a weak reaction
Paraguay and BUZZ HPC expansion still offer upside optionality
HIVE delivered a sharp FY2026 revenue ramp, BUZZ HPC revenue nearly doubled, and gross operating margin expanded to 36%, so a sustained Paraguay buildout plus improving HPC utilization could support a re-rating from a growth-and-operating-leverage story rather than only a Bitcoin beta.

BearKey bullets

BUZZ HPC execution depends on customer demand and deployment timing, and the B200 delay from March to May is a reminder that timing slippage matters.
Bitcoin price weakness or higher network difficulty can compress hashprice faster than installed-hashrate growth offsets it.
Capital-intensive expansion plus higher G&A and depreciation keep GAAP losses and cash-flow sensitivity relevant.

WatchKey bullets

FY2026 top-line and HPC scaling remained strong

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $6 (p=42%)

Bull/Bear spread: +87% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +87% · Base +35% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $9 (p=28%)Base Target: $6 (p=42%)Bear Target: $3 (p=30%)

Commentary

News flow is mixed but leaning negative: the company posted strong FY2026 revenue growth and HPC expansion, yet the same release showed a weak Q4 sequential step-down, negative Adjusted EBITDA, and a large GAAP loss. Market coverage on June 2 described a sharp post-print selloff. No social, options, or analyst-revision data were provided in the packet, so the sentiment read is low-confidence and should be treated as a monitoring signal rather than a conviction call.

As of 2026-06-03 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 hashprice pressure and negative profitability drove a weak reaction
Paraguay and BUZZ HPC expansion still offer upside optionality

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=28% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=42% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=30% prob

Price $5 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 34%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +87% · Base +35% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.12

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-02
FY2026 top-line and HPC scaling remained strong
HIVE reported FY2026 revenue of $297.8M (+158% YoY), digital-currency revenue of $278.3M (+164%), HPC revenue of $19.5M (+94%), installed hashrate of 25.1 EH/s, and gross operating margin of 36%; this supports the multi-quarter growth case even though the release still showed a $148.4M GAAP net loss [#8-K-2026-06-02].
Prob 72.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 68.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 hashprice pressure and negative profitability drove a weak reaction
2026-06-03
Q4 revenue was $71.8M, Bitcoin mining revenue fell 23.9% sequentially, and Adjusted EBITDA was $(9.0)M as lower BTC prices and higher difficulty compressed mining economics; this is the main near-term downside catalyst and helps explain the post-print selloff [#8-K-2026-06-02].
Prob 68% • Move -10% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Paraguay and BUZZ HPC expansion still offer upside optionality
2026-12-31
Management said Paraguay Phase 3 and the NVIDIA H200/B200-driven BUZZ HPC buildout were the key operating levers behind the FY2026 ramp, so execution on capacity additions and HPC demand could keep the longer-term thesis intact if crypto economics remain constructive [#8-K-2026-06-02].
Prob 58% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

BUZZ HPC execution depends on customer demand and deployment timing, and the B200 delay from March to May is a reminder that timing slippage matters.
Bitcoin price weakness or higher network difficulty can compress hashprice faster than installed-hashrate growth offsets it.
Capital-intensive expansion plus higher G&A and depreciation keep GAAP losses and cash-flow sensitivity relevant.
Paraguay and other multi-jurisdiction operations create geographic and FX/translation noise.
The packet does not include fresh analyst revisions or consensus detail, so the post-print valuation signal is thin.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ABTC	Closest pure-play Bitcoin-mining comparison for hashprice and network-difficulty sensitivity, though HIVE is less concentrated because it also has an HPC/data-center growth leg.
WYFI	Adjacent infrastructure/data-center comparison that is more relevant to HIVE's AI/HPC buildout than a typical software peer, but still only a loose operating comp.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-06-03