GTN.A

Rating sellAI Memo

Gray Media

As of 2026-01-13/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 / Q4 results • 2026-04-13

Expected move: -16%

Biggest risk

Persistent ad weakness, unfavorable carriage outcomes, or refinancing stress forces dilution or distressed asset sales, keeping multiples depressed.

Invalidation

Break below $3 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stabilizing ad demand, favorable retransmission renewals, or a strategic sale/re-rating reduces leverage concerns and narrows the discount to peers.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-13

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

$11

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2025 / Q4 results
Ad & retransmission recovery
Stabilizing ad demand, favorable retransmission renewals, or a strategic sale/re-rating reduces leverage concerns and narrows the discount to peers.

BearKey bullets

Failure of cost-savings or integration after transactions
Local and national ad revenue contraction
Refinancing / covenant stress

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 18.675, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-12T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Scenario targets are derived from the provided market anchor and cross-checked against aggregator consensus (median/average targets observed in the low single-digits to low-teens).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $7 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +25% / -64%

Vs latest close: Bull +25% · Base -16% · Bear -64%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $11 (p=20%)Base Target: $7 (p=60%)Bear Target: $3 (p=20%)

Commentary

Aggregator and analyst snippets cluster below the current market price, implying skepticism about sustained upside [#SERP-1]. Coverage emphasizes ad-market sensitivity and leverage risk; a minority view cites M&A or retransmission wins as potential positive catalysts [#SERP-3][#SERP-5].

As of 2026-01-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Stabilizing ad demand, favorable retransmission renewals, or a strategic sale/re-rating reduces leverage concerns and narrows the discount to peers.

Bear Case

Persistent ad weakness, unfavorable carriage outcomes, or refinancing stress forces dilution or distressed asset sales, keeping multiples depressed.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2025 / Q4 results
Ad & retransmission recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$7.25

Range (USD)

$5.50 - $12.85

Count

Query: Gray Media Inc Class A Common (GTN.A) analyst consensus price target high low average

GTN.A | Gray Media Inc. Cl A Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #1
N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $10.00. Median, $6.50. Low, $3.00. Average, $6.40. Current Price, $12.50. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. GTN.A will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $10.00, $6.50, $3.00, $6.40, $12.50Open source
Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Analyst Insights: GTN. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 3.00 Low. 6.40 Average ... Price Target 9 -> 10. View More. Statistics: GTN. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
GRAY MEDIA INC-A(NYSE:GTN.A) stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #3
9 analysts have analysed GTN.A and the average price target is 12.85 USD. This implies a price increase of 30.95% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $12.85Open source
Gray Television Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy GTN?
Search result #4
During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.29% from a day low at $4.26 to a day high of $4.40. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down ...
Extracted: $4.26, $4.40Open source
GTN / Gray Media, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target, Estimates ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Gray Media, Inc. is $6.53. The forecasts range from a low of $3.03 to a high of $10.50. Read More.
Extracted: $6.53, $3.03, $10.50Open source
Gray Media (NYSE:GTN) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
Search result #6
Gray Media (GTN) Stock Overview ; Trading at 83.4% below our estimate of its fair value ; Earnings are forecast to grow 4.19% per year ; Interest payments are not ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=20% prob

Price $8 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 16%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +25% · Base -16% · Bear -64%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2025 / Q4 results
2026-04-13
Quarterly results and guidance that can rapidly reprice the name given wide sell-side target dispersion and ad sensitivity.
Prob 65% • Move 15% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Ad & retransmission recovery
2027-01-13
Sustained improvement in local advertising and higher retransmission fees could materially boost FCF and narrow the valuation discount.
Prob 40% • Move 80% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Failure of cost-savings or integration after transactions
Local and national ad revenue contraction
Refinancing / covenant stress
Regulatory changes affecting broadcast economics
Unfavorable retransmission-consent renewals

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NXST	Large local broadcaster with comparable retransmission and political-ad exposure; useful operational benchmark.
SBGI	Broadcast group with similar carriage/retransmission revenue sensitivity and consolidation dynamics.
TGNA	Legacy local-TV operator; useful comparator for ad cyclicality and digital transition execution.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Gray Media Inc Class A Common (GTN.A) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-13

AI Stock Memo: GTN.A - Gray Media - RankAlpha