AI Stock Memo: GRC - Gorman-Rupp - RankAlpha

GRC

Rating sellAI Memo

Gorman-Rupp

As of 2026-02-08/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital allocation / dividend decision (assumed window end) • 2026-12-31

Expected move: -26%

Biggest risk

Bear: Weaker industrial capex and margin pressure from pricing or input-costs compress earnings and push the stock toward the low scenario; analyst consensus is clustered near lower levels, reflecting downside risk.

Invalidation

Break below $49 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: Strong OEM orders, resilient aftermarket demand, and stable margins drive outsized revenue growth and push the stock above the analyst high; acquisition or favorable capital allocation could further re-rate shares.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-08

Base target

$59

p=55%

Bull target

$76

p=25%

Bear target

$49

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Industrial demand cycle / large contract awards
Bull: Strong OEM orders, resilient aftermarket demand, and stable margins drive outsized revenue growth and push the stock above the analyst high; acquisition or favorable capital allocation could further re-rate shares.

BearKey bullets

Distributor/dealer inventory destocking reducing shipments
Earnings/backlog misses versus analyst expectations
Industrial capex slowdown or OEM order deferrals

WatchKey bullets

Capital allocation / dividend decision (assumed window end)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $59 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -5% / -38%

Vs latest close: Bull -5% · Base -26% · Bear -38%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $76 (p=25%)Base Target: $59 (p=55%)Bear Target: $49 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst targets cluster below the current market anchor, with medians near the mid‑$50s, indicating limited consensus upside absent positive execution [#SERP-1][#SERP-4]. Market focus is concentrated on upcoming earnings and backlog/order trends; a guidance or order miss would likely push price toward the bear target given the downside skew [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-02-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
Industrial demand cycle / large contract awards

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$58.34

Range (USD)

$54.58 - $66.15

Count

Query: Gorman-Rupp Co Common (GRC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Gorman-Rupp Co. Analyst Estimates - GRC
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $63.00. Median, $55.00. Low, $55.00. Average, $57.67. Current Price, $54.65. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. GRC will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $63.00, $55.00, $57.67, $54.65Open source
Gorman-Rupp (GRC) Price Targets
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $55.00 to a high of $63.00. The average price target represents a decline of 0.92% from the last closing price of $59.55.
Extracted: $55.00, $63.00, $59.55Open source
Gorman-Rupp Consensus Estimates (GRC)
Search result #3
Gorman-Rupp has a potential Upside of +22.56%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has Gorman-Rupp Stock Performed Over the Past 52 ...
Open sourceJan 2, 2026
GRC Stock Forecast 2026 - Gorman-Rupp Price Targets & ...
Search result #4
Based on our analysis of 2 Wall Street analysts, GRC has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $59.00 (ranging from $55.00 to $63.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $59.00, $55.00, $63.00Open source
Consensus The Gorman-Rupp Company - GRC
Search result #5
Spread / Highest target. +37.61%. Low Price Target. 55.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +20.14%. Analyst Consensus Detail. Consensus revision (last 18 months) ...
Extracted: $55.00Open source
Gorman-Rupp (NYSE:GRC) - Stock Analysis
Search result #6
Gorman-Rupp (GRC) Stock Overview ; Earnings are forecast to grow 13.44% per year ; Earnings grew by 31.8% over the past year ; Has a high level of debt.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$76 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$59 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$49 / p=20% prob

Price $80 as of 2026-07-10

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -5% · Base -26% · Bear -38%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Capital allocation / dividend decision (assumed window end)
Company capital allocation (dividend/repurchase) and FY guidance cadence could shift investor yield calculus; date is assumed as window end for planning purposes [#SERP-2].
Prob 50.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings / guidance update
2026-05-09
Q1/Q2 2026 earnings and accompanying guidance will clearly signal near-term demand and margin direction; analyst estimates show a tight target range and mixed expectations [#SERP-1].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Industrial demand cycle / large contract awards
2027-02-08
Multi-quarter recovery or weakness in industrial capex and large OEM orders will drive material revenue upside or downside; watch backlog announcements and major customer updates [#SERP-7].
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Distributor/dealer inventory destocking reducing shipments
Earnings/backlog misses versus analyst expectations
Industrial capex slowdown or OEM order deferrals
Input-cost and freight inflation compressing gross margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FLS	Flowserve — larger pump/flow solutions provider; comparable cyclical exposure and aftermarket linkage.
XYL	Xylem — water infrastructure focus; similar sensitivity to municipal and industrial capex trends.
PNR	Pentair — diversified fluid management products; comparable exposure to aftermarket and replacement demand.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Gorman-Rupp Co Common (GRC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-08