GPK

Rating buyAI Memo

Graphic Packaging

As of 2026-02-04/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Input-cost or debt-refinancing pressure • 2026-05-05

Expected move: +52%

Biggest risk

Prolonged end-market weakness, higher input costs, or refinancing stress compresses margins and valuation, pushing the stock below current trading levels.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Market-share gains and margin recovery with structurally higher sustainable-carton demand lift revenue and multiple expansion to the high-teens/low-twenties per share within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-04

Base target

$17

p=60%

Bull target

$22

p=25%

Bear target

$10

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release and guidance update
Analyst revisions and target convergence
Sustained carton demand recovery and margin normalization

BearKey bullets

Adverse refinancing or covenant pressure
Analyst downgrades causing momentum losses
Rising fiber/energy input costs

WatchKey bullets

Input-cost or debt-refinancing pressure

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $17 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +95% / -11%

Vs latest close: Bull +95% · Base +52% · Bear -11%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $22 (p=25%)Base Target: $17 (p=60%)Bear Target: $10 (p=15%)

Commentary

Recent analyst coverage shows mixed but broadly positive 12-month targets with a median near $17 and highs into the low $20s, indicating constructive institutional views [#SERP-1], [#SERP-4]. Market commentary emphasizes target dispersion and sensitivity to margin recovery, creating volatility around earnings and guidance windows [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Market-share gains and margin recovery with structurally higher sustainable-carton demand lift revenue and multiple expansion to the high-teens/low-twenties per share within 12 months.

Bear Case

Prolonged end-market weakness, higher input costs, or refinancing stress compresses margins and valuation, pushing the stock below current trading levels.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings release and guidance update
Analyst revisions and target convergence
Sustained carton demand recovery and margin normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$17.16

Range (USD)

$12.00 - $35.20

Count

Query: Graphic Packaging Holding Co Common (GPK) analyst consensus price target high low average

Graphic Packaging (GPK) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 10 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Graphic Packaging is 17.17, with a high estimate of 22 and a low estimate ...
Open source
Graphic Packaging Holding Company: Target Price Consensus and ...
Search result #2
Graphic Packaging Holding Company analysts consensus, targets, ratings and recommendations | Nyse: GPK | Nyse.
Open source
Graphic Packaging (GPK) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $12.00 to a high of $22.00. The average price target represents an increase of 19.04% from the last closing price of $14.65.
Extracted: $12.00, $22.00, $14.65Open source
Graphic Packaging Holding Analyst Ratings - NYSE:GPK - Benzinga
Search result #4
Graphic Packaging Holding Co has a consensus price target of $22.43 based on the ratings of 13 analysts. The high is $35.2 issued by Stifel on July 9, 2024.
Extracted: $22.43, $35.20Open source
A Look At Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) Valuation After Recent ...
Search result #5
While the latest 1 day share price return of 2.47% to US$15.37 has caught attention, the 1 year total shareholder return of 43.03% decline and 3 ...
Extracted: $15.37Open sourceJan 23, 2026
Graphic Packaging stock forecast - GPK - TipRanks
Search result #6
The average price target is $17.14 with a high forecast of $23.00 and a low forecast of $12.00. The average price target represents a 17.00% change from the ...
Extracted: $17.14, $23.00, $12.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=15% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +95% · Base +52% · Bear -11%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-05
Input-cost or debt-refinancing pressure
Rising fiber, energy costs or refinancing needs could compress margins or force deleveraging; monitor cash flow and debt calendar (date assumed conservatively) [#SERP-1].
Prob 30.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings release and guidance update
2026-05-05
Next quarterly report and management guidance could move consensus targets and shares; use analyst consensus and estimate revisions as trigger (assumed date conservatively set) [#SERP-8], [#SERP-1].
Prob 85% • Move 10% • Priced-in 45%
Analyst revisions and target convergence
2026-05-05
Divergent analyst targets (low-to-high dispersion) suggest potential for target upgrades/downgrades after new data; consensus updates frequently shift 12 -month targets [#SERP-3], [#SERP-4].
Prob 50% • Move 15% • Priced-in 20%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained carton demand recovery and margin normalization
2027-02-04
Multi-quarter recovery in consumer-packaged-goods and sustainable packaging demand could support higher multiples and volume growth; reflected in several analyst upward targets [#SERP-1], [#SERP-6].
Prob 60% • Move 35% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Adverse refinancing or covenant pressure
Analyst downgrades causing momentum losses
Rising fiber/energy input costs
Weaker-than-expected packaging demand

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PKG	Packaging Corp of America — US-focused containerboard/box producer; serves as a valuation/comps reference for domestic demand trends.
IP	International Paper — broader paper/products exposure; useful for macro demand and raw-material pressure comparisons.
AMCR	Amcor (global packaging) — complements GPK on global packaging demand and sustainable-material transitions.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Graphic Packaging Holding Co Common (GPK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-04

AI Stock Memo: GPK - Graphic Packaging - RankAlpha