B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$12.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GPK
Graphic PackagingBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At the $9.05 anchor, recovery potential depends on cost actions and pricing restoring margins while cash generation reduces leverage. First-half sales and volumes rose year over year, according to management, but Q2 profit deterioration means delivery—not the plan—is decisive [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04] (SEC earnings exhibit).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Inflation of $150 million expected for 2026 exceeds the approximately $85 million of anticipated structural savings [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Momentum
20
Value
62
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.30 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.95
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d +3.3
Value62 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -5.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inflation of $150 million expected for 2026 exceeds the approximately $85 million of anticipated structural savings [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
- • June net leverage of 4.7x increases sensitivity to weak cash flow and interest expense [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
- • Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $247 million from $336 million; inflation and lower pricing outweighed productivity gains.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Test of reduced 2026 earnings and cash-flow outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.1
Δ21d
-10.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 20.4 / Value 61.9 / Sentiment 62.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.57B
Beta
0.63
Shares Out
296.07M
P/E (TTM)
9.1
P/S (TTM)
0.53
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
43.71
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
-76.5%
Gross Margin
+15.5%
Op Margin
+6.9%
Net Debt
$5.61B
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data