B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
GPK
Graphic PackagingANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was at the top of quarterly guidance, sequential margin improved 50 basis points, and management reported first-half sales and volumes above the prior year. Productivity, pricing, and footprint actions could support a second-half recovery [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.7.
What can break
Facility closures, divestitures, and footprint consolidation could create execution or customer-service disruption.
Momentum
20
Value
62
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.40 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.58
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -9.9
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +20.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Facility closures, divestitures, and footprint consolidation could create execution or customer-service disruption.
- • High leverage and higher interest expense could constrain cash flow and further pressure adjusted EPS.
- • Inflation reduced adjusted EBITDA by $60 million in Q2, adjusted EBITDA fell year over year, net leverage was 4.7x, and management lowered EPS and cash-flow guidance.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 earnings reset the 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.9
Δ21d
-37.4
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.7
Δ21d
+17.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 20.5 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 83.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.26B
Beta
0.63
Shares Out
296.07M
P/E (TTM)
9.1
P/S (TTM)
0.53
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
55.33
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
-76.5%
Gross Margin
+15.5%
Op Margin
+6.9%
Net Debt
$5.61B
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data