GOTU

Rating neutralTentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Gaotu Techedu

As of 2026-05-16/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

Coverage is limited for this name. This memo is usable, but confidence is lower and evidence depth is thinner than a standard report.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results are still ahead, with the actual report date set for June 2 • 2026-06-02

Expected move: +19%

Biggest risk

The main bearish point is that this is not yet a true post-earnings setup. As of May 16, 2026 there is no verified Q1 2026 earnings release, no confirmed earnings surprise, and no reliable post-print analyst revision set to evaluate. The last primary source also guided only 5.7% to 7.0% Q1 revenue growth, which suggests slower near-term momentum and keeps the name in a low-visibility monitoring bucket.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The constructive read is that Gaotu entered 2026 with real operating momentum: Q4 2025 revenue grew 21.4%, full-year revenue grew 35.0%, losses narrowed materially, operating cash flow improved, and management continued buybacks, all of which can support upside if June 2 results show the efficiency story is intact. The packet's median target of about $3.94 is above the May 15, 2026 anchor price of $1.87, implying valuation room if execution stabilizes.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-16

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 guidance set a relatively low near-term revenue bar
FY2025 operating leverage, cash generation, and buybacks provide some fundamental support
The constructive read is that Gaotu entered 2026 with real operating momentum: Q4 2025 revenue grew 21.4%, full-year revenue grew 35.0%, losses narrowed materially, operating cash flow improved, and management continued buybacks, all of which can support upside if June 2 results show the efficiency story is intact.

BearKey bullets

Coverage is thin: no primary notes were supplied in the packet, analyst target count is unavailable, and no trustworthy post-print revision data exists yet.
Q1 2026 guidance of RMB1,578 million to RMB1,598 million implies only 5.7% to 7.0% year-over-year growth, a meaningful slowdown versus 35.0% fiscal 2025 growth.
Q4 2025 gross margin slipped to 67.9% from 68.3% and operating expenses rose 15.0%, with higher marketing, branding, and workforce costs still capable of pressuring profitability.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results are still ahead, with the actual report date set for June 2

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $2 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +59% / -26%

Vs latest close: Bull +59% · Base +19% · Bear -26%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $3 (p=25%)Base Target: $2 (p=45%)Bear Target: $1 (p=30%)

Commentary

This should be treated as a cautious pre-earnings monitoring update, not a normal T+3 earnings reaction memo. On May 15, 2026 the company itself said Q1 2026 results will be reported on June 2, 2026, so there is no verified revenue/EPS surprise, no management Q1 driver update, and no dependable analyst-revision readout yet. News flow is sparse, social coverage is absent in the packet, and the deterministic prior is positive but paired with extremely high uncertainty and zero evidence-quality support.

As of 2026-05-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 guidance set a relatively low near-term revenue bar
FY2025 operating leverage, cash generation, and buybacks provide some fundamental support

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=30% prob

Price $2 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 19%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +59% · Base +19% · Bear -26%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-02
Q1 2026 results are still ahead, with the actual report date set for June 2
The packet's scheduled May 13, 2026 post-earnings follow-up appears premature. Gaotu announced on May 15, 2026 that it will report first-quarter 2026 financial results before U.S. markets open on June 2, 2026, making the next real catalyst the upcoming print and call rather than any completed earnings digestion yet. [#PR-2026-05-15]
Prob 90.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 guidance set a relatively low near-term revenue bar
2026-06-02
In its March 5, 2026 results release, Gaotu guided first-quarter 2026 net revenue to RMB1,578 million to RMB1,598 million, up 5.7% to 7.0% year over year. That modest guide could support a relief move if execution is clean, but it also signals a sharp slowdown versus fiscal 2025 growth and limits confidence until the company proves reacceleration. [#PR-2026-03-05]
Prob 65% • Move 12% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

FY2025 operating leverage, cash generation, and buybacks provide some fundamental support
2026-08-31
Gaotu's March 5, 2026 release showed fiscal 2025 revenue up 35.0% to RMB6.15 billion, net loss narrowing 69.2%, net operating cash inflow rising 61.3% to RMB416.1 million, and cumulative ADS repurchases of about US$93.0 million as of March 4, 2026. That gives the story a real operating-improvement base, but it still needs confirmation that the efficiency-led model holds into 2026. [#PR-2026-03-05]
Prob 55% • Move 22% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Coverage is thin: no primary notes were supplied in the packet, analyst target count is unavailable, and no trustworthy post-print revision data exists yet.
Q1 2026 guidance of RMB1,578 million to RMB1,598 million implies only 5.7% to 7.0% year-over-year growth, a meaningful slowdown versus 35.0% fiscal 2025 growth.
Q4 2025 gross margin slipped to 67.9% from 68.3% and operating expenses rose 15.0%, with higher marketing, branding, and workforce costs still capable of pressuring profitability.
The scheduled May 13, 2026 earnings follow-up appears mistimed; Gaotu said on May 15, 2026 that Q1 2026 results will be released on June 2, 2026, so there is still a major unresolved event risk.

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-16

AI Stock Memo: GOTU - Gaotu Techedu - RankAlpha