AI Stock Memo: GFF - Griffon - RankAlpha

GFF

Rating neutralAI Memo

Griffon

As of 2026-05-27/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

AMES North America JV close remains the clearest discrete portfolio-reset milestone • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that volume weakness persists, pricing only partly offsets the decline, and the AMES transition takes longer or costs more than expected, delaying any rerating [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Invalidation

Break below $70 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Griffon can keep full-year guidance intact despite softer residential volume, while the AMES actions simplify the story and preserve cash generation for dividends and repurchases [#8-K-2026-05-07][#10-Q-2026-05-07].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-27

Base target

$92

p=50%

Bull target

$115

p=25%

Bear target

$70

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q2 results showed softer volume but management held FY2026 guide
Longer-term upside depends on turning simplification into cleaner earnings and capital returns
The bull case is that Griffon can keep full-year guidance intact despite softer residential volume, while the AMES actions simplify the story and preserve cash generation for dividends and repurchases [#8-K-2026-05-07][#10-Q-2026-05-07].

BearKey bullets

If pricing and productivity stall, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow could undershoot the full-year guide even if revenue stays near plan.
Residential and adjacent housing demand remain the near-term swing factor: Q2 volume was down 6% and price/mix only partly offset that pressure [#8-K-2026-05-07].
The AMES North America close, Australia strategic process, and UK exit could slip or cost more than expected, delaying the cleaner story the market is waiting for [#8-K-2026-05-07].

WatchKey bullets

AMES North America JV close remains the clearest discrete portfolio-reset milestone

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $92 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +31% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +5% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $115 (p=25%)Base Target: $92 (p=50%)Bear Target: $70 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is solid because the May 7 earnings release and related SEC filing confirm the current setup, but the thesis still looks like a monitored execution story rather than a clean rerating. News flow is concentrated in company-driven items around results, the dividend declaration, and the strategic-update timeline; the packet has no analyst revisions, options data, short-interest data, or social-sentiment coverage, so confidence should stay moderate.

As of 2026-05-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

The bear case is that volume weakness persists, pricing only partly offsets the decline, and the AMES transition takes longer or costs more than expected, delaying any rerating [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q2 results showed softer volume but management held FY2026 guide
Longer-term upside depends on turning simplification into cleaner earnings and capital returns

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$115 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$92 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$70 / p=25% prob

Price $88 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +5% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
AMES North America JV close remains the clearest discrete portfolio-reset milestone
Management still expects the ONCAP joint venture for the AMES U.S. and Canada businesses to close by the end of June 2026, while AMES Australia remains in a strategic process and the UK business is being exited; this is the most obvious near-term rerating event in the packet [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 65.00% • Move 9.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q2 results showed softer volume but management held FY2026 guide
2026-05-07
The May 7 release showed continuing-operations revenue of $421.9 million, down 1% year over year, with volume down 6% and price/mix up 5%; management kept full-year continuing-operations guidance at about $1.8 billion of revenue, about $458 million of adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow above net income [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Longer-term upside depends on turning simplification into cleaner earnings and capital returns
2026-12-31
If the portfolio actions keep converting into steady cash generation, Griffon can support continued buybacks and dividends and may deserve a higher multiple, but that outcome depends on execution and on the separation/reset staying on schedule [#10-Q-2026-05-07][#10-K-2025-11-19].
Prob 55% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

If pricing and productivity stall, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow could undershoot the full-year guide even if revenue stays near plan.
Residential and adjacent housing demand remain the near-term swing factor: Q2 volume was down 6% and price/mix only partly offset that pressure [#8-K-2026-05-07].
The AMES North America close, Australia strategic process, and UK exit could slip or cost more than expected, delaying the cleaner story the market is waiting for [#8-K-2026-05-07].
There is no post-print analyst revision or broader market-signal data in the packet, so the stock could re-rate quickly on limited incremental evidence.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ATMU	Useful same-sector mid-cap industrial comp for multiple checks, but its filtration mix makes it only a partial read-through to Griffon's portfolio-reset story.
MWA	A better same-size operating benchmark for margin discipline and cash conversion, though its water/infrastructure exposure is steadier than Griffon's.
EMR	A higher-quality industrial benchmark for valuation and execution discipline, but it is much larger and more diversified than Griffon.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-27