FTLF

Rating neutralAI Memo

FitLife Brands

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Board promoted Ryan Hansen to President with a modest pay and equity package • 2026-05-22

Expected move: +29%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that higher interest expense, elevated SG&A, and a still-stretched balance sheet absorb too much of the operating gain; if growth slows even modestly, the equity can stay stuck in a financing-overhang discount.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that revenue growth is real and gross profit scaled with it, suggesting the post-acquisition portfolio can still grow; if management converts that growth into steadier cash flow and trims debt, equity value can re-rate from a low base.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$13

p=50%

Bull target

$23

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 showed real top-line growth, but earnings quality softened
Deleveraging and cash conversion remain the main medium-term rerating lever
The bull case is that revenue growth is real and gross profit scaled with it, suggesting the post-acquisition portfolio can still grow; if management converts that growth into steadier cash flow and trims debt, equity value can re-rate from a low base.

BearKey bullets

Analyst coverage is thin, so post-print revisions and target changes are not a reliable signal set.
Cash was only $1.2M at March 31, 2026 versus $4.2M on the revolver and $31.3M of term loan net of current portion, leaving the balance sheet tight.
Interest expense rose to $735K in Q1, so financing costs remain a meaningful drag on earnings quality.

WatchKey bullets

Board promoted Ryan Hansen to President with a modest pay and equity package

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $13 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +137% / -28%

Vs latest close: Bull +137% · Base +29% · Bear -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $23 (p=20%)Base Target: $13 (p=50%)Bear Target: $7 (p=30%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is constructive on revenue growth, but the print also confirmed leverage and interest expense remain material constraints. No trustworthy post-print price-reaction or analyst-revision data was included in the packet, so this remains a cautious monitoring view rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 showed real top-line growth, but earnings quality softened
Deleveraging and cash conversion remain the main medium-term rerating lever

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=30% prob

Price $10 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 28%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +137% · Base +29% · Bear -28%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-22
Board promoted Ryan Hansen to President with a modest pay and equity package
On May 18, 2026 the board appointed Ryan Hansen President, raised his base salary from $275K to $300K, and granted 75,000 options plus 50,000 PSUs; this looks like a continuity/management-structure update rather than a thesis-changing strategic pivot [#8-K-2026-05-22].
Prob 75.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 showed real top-line growth, but earnings quality softened
2026-05-14
The Q1 2026 10-Q showed revenue of $25.3M versus $15.9M a year earlier and gross profit of $9.5M versus $6.9M, but net income slipped to $1.7M from $2.0M as interest expense rose to $735K and SG&A increased; that keeps the print constructive on growth but still levered on the bottom line [#10-Q-2026-05-14].
Prob 90% • Move 5% • Priced-in 80%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Deleveraging and cash conversion remain the main medium-term rerating lever
2027-03-31
March 31 balance-sheet data show only $1.2M of cash against a $4.2M revolving line of credit and a $31.3M term loan net of current portion, with positive working capital still intact; if operating cash flow continues to improve, debt reduction could lower financing drag and support a higher equity multiple, but this is still execution dependent [#10-Q-2026-05-14].
Prob 45% • Move 18% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Analyst coverage is thin, so post-print revisions and target changes are not a reliable signal set.
Cash was only $1.2M at March 31, 2026 versus $4.2M on the revolver and $31.3M of term loan net of current portion, leaving the balance sheet tight.
Interest expense rose to $735K in Q1, so financing costs remain a meaningful drag on earnings quality.
The quarter’s revenue growth did not fully flow through to net income, which makes valuation more sensitive to margin and cash-flow execution.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LFVN	Closest operating peer in wellness and consumer-brand execution; useful for reading demand elasticity, channel mix, and margin sensitivity.
MED	Larger consumer-wellness peer that helps frame demand pressure and leverage to gross margin, though the model is less direct.
UPXI	Looser peer, but still useful for small-cap consumer-brand integration risk and balance-sheet sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: FTLF - FitLife Brands - RankAlpha