FSBC

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Five Star Bancorp

As of 2026-07-23/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 earnings beat with strong balance-sheet growth • 2026-07-23

Expected move: +1%

Biggest risk

The post-print trading reaction was negative despite the reported beat, consistent with concern over sequential NIM compression, lower CET1, and the risk that rapid growth increases funding or credit sensitivity. No post-print analyst target or estimate revisions were available.

Invalidation

Break below $41 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q2 earnings, loan growth, deposit growth, and non-wholesale funding mix were constructive, while NIM remained above the prior-year level. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-07-23

Base target

$49

p=50%

Bull target

$57

p=25%

Bear target

$41

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Margin and capital-ratio pressure
Organic funding and loan-growth execution
Q2 earnings, loan growth, deposit growth, and non-wholesale funding mix were constructive, while NIM remained above the prior-year level.

BearKey bullets

CET1 declined to 9.98% from 10.45% quarter over quarter.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Coverage is medium, analyst target count is unavailable, and no post-earnings revision data is present.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 earnings beat with strong balance-sheet growth

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $49 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +18% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +1% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $57 (p=25%)Base Target: $49 (p=50%)Bear Target: $41 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source earnings evidence is strong, but the immediate market signal was negative: the live quote was about $46 versus the July 22 anchor of $48.37, roughly a 4.9% decline. The earnings beat was not sufficient to establish positive post-print momentum; analyst revisions and social coverage are unavailable.

As of 2026-07-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Q2 earnings, loan growth, deposit growth, and non-wholesale funding mix were constructive, while NIM remained above the prior-year level. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Margin and capital-ratio pressure
Organic funding and loan-growth execution

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$57 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$49 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=25% prob

Price $48 as of 2026-07-22

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +18% · Base +1% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-23
Q2 earnings beat with strong balance-sheet growth
Five Star reported Q2 net income of $19.4 million and diluted EPS of $0.91, versus $18.6 million and $0.87 in Q1; loans rose 7.27% quarter over quarter and deposits 7.38%. Zacks reported a 4.6% EPS surprise and 1.49% revenue beat. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Prob 100.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 80.00%
EVENT2026-08-10
Quarterly cash dividend payment
The company declared a $0.25-per-share cash dividend payable August 10, 2026 to shareholders of record August 3, 2026. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-17]
Prob 95.00% • Move 1.00% • Priced-in 90.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Margin and capital-ratio pressure
2026-08-31
Net interest margin contracted 7 basis points quarter over quarter to 3.63%, as rapid balance-sheet expansion diluted earning-asset yield. CET1 declined from 10.45% to 9.98%, although the bank remained well-capitalized. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Prob 70% • Move -7% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Organic funding and loan-growth execution
2026-09-30
Non-wholesale deposits increased 11.33% while wholesale deposits declined 34.74%; loans increased 7.27% quarter over quarter and business-development officers rose from 43 to 45. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

CET1 declined to 9.98% from 10.45% quarter over quarter. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Coverage is medium, analyst target count is unavailable, and no post-earnings revision data is present.
Sequential NIM contraction to 3.63% could offset volume-led earnings growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
The ratio of nonperforming loans to loans held for investment increased from 0.07% at March 31, 2026. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Two officers reported open-market stock sales in May 2026; this is a secondary sentiment signal, not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-22] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-15]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EQBK	Direct same-sector, similar-market-cap candidate; no comparative operating data supplied.
ESQ	Direct same-sector, similar-market-cap candidate; no comparative operating data supplied.
HBNC	Direct same-sector, similar-market-cap candidate; no comparative operating data supplied.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-23

AI Stock Memo: FSBC - Five Star Bancorp - RankAlpha