B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
FSBC
Five Star BancorpCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Strong Q2 earnings growth, rapid loan and deposit expansion, improving non-wholesale funding mix, and well-capitalized ratios support a constructive operating case. Recent director purchases may reinforce sentiment, but they are not evidence of operating results [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-24].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.9.
What can break
Credit deterioration following the increase in non-performing loans and provision expense.
Momentum
43
Value
50
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.00 · Bull $54.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $52.00
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +1.8
Value50 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +2.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Credit deterioration following the increase in non-performing loans and provision expense.
- • Further net interest margin compression from rapid balance-sheet expansion or higher deposit costs.
- • Rapid balance-sheet growth is diluting margin, funding costs and expenses increased, provision expense rose, and non-performing loans moved higher.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Q2 earnings showed strong growth with margin and credit trade-offs
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+6.2
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.9
Δ21d
+2.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 43.2 / Value 50.0 / Sentiment 64.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.15B
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
24.54M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
5.19
P/FCF (TTM)
14.89
Rev YoY
+18.9%
EPS YoY
+33.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+34.6%
Net Debt
$51.94M
Current Ratio
0.15
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data