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FSBC

Five Star BancorpC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong Q2 earnings growth, rapid loan and deposit expansion, improving non-wholesale funding mix, and well-capitalized ratios support a constructive operating case. Recent director purchases may reinforce sentiment, but they are not evidence of operating results [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-24].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
What can break
Credit deterioration following the increase in non-performing loans and provision expense.
Momentum
43
Value
50
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.00 · Bull $54.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.40
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +0.5
Value50 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -2.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit deterioration following the increase in non-performing loans and provision expense.
  • • Further net interest margin compression from rapid balance-sheet expansion or higher deposit costs.
  • • Rapid balance-sheet growth is diluting margin, funding costs and expenses increased, provision expense rose, and non-performing loans moved higher.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26 · AMC

Q2 earnings showed strong growth with margin and credit trade-offs

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.5
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
-11.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 43.0 / Value 50.3 / Sentiment 59.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.08B
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
24.54M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
5.19
P/FCF (TTM)
14.89
Rev YoY
+18.9%
EPS YoY
+33.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+34.6%
Net Debt
$51.94M
Current Ratio
0.15
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data