AI Stock Memo: FRPT - Freshpet - RankAlpha

FRPT

AI Memo

Freshpet

As of 2026-02-24/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

New production capacity ramp / plant expansion • 2026-11-30

Expected move: +52%

Biggest risk

Material CapEx delays, cold-chain or input-cost pressures, or retailer setbacks compress margins and slow growth, moving valuation toward the bear scenario.

Invalidation

Break below $56 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

On-schedule capacity ramps, sustained premiumization, and successful retail execution drive faster top-line growth and margin expansion, justifying upside toward the bull scenario.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-24

Base target

$79

p=55%

Bull target

$101

p=25%

Bear target

$56

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 FY26 quarterly results
Category expansion and premiumization tailwinds
On-schedule capacity ramps, sustained premiumization, and successful retail execution drive faster top-line growth and margin expansion, justifying upside toward the bull scenario.

BearKey bullets

Execution delays on new production capacity
Raw material cost inflation and margin compression
Weaker discretionary consumer spending reducing premium pet-food demand

WatchKey bullets

New production capacity ramp / plant expansion

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $79 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +96% / +9%

Vs latest close: Bull +96% · Base +52% · Bear +9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $101 (p=25%)Base Target: $79 (p=55%)Bear Target: $56 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is neutral: the consensus median sits near the anchor, implying limited near-term upside absent successful execution. Upside toward the 101.0 bull scenario depends on timely H2 2026 capacity ramps and margin recovery, while delays or inflationary pressures could drive shares toward the 56.0 bear case. Overall tone is cautiously balanced—constructive on long-term premiumization but guarded on execution risk [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].

As of 2026-02-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

On-schedule capacity ramps, sustained premiumization, and successful retail execution drive faster top-line growth and margin expansion, justifying upside toward the bull scenario.

Bear Case

Material CapEx delays, cold-chain or input-cost pressures, or retailer setbacks compress margins and slow growth, moving valuation toward the bear scenario.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 FY26 quarterly results
Category expansion and premiumization tailwinds

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$78.27

Range (USD)

$48.48 - $185.00

Count

Query: Freshpet Inc Common (FRPT) analyst consensus price target high low average

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Q4. FY25. 0. 100M. 200M. View More. Analyst Insights: FRPT. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 56.00 Low. 80.67 Average. 78.58 Current. 101.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Freshpet Inc (FRPT) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Freshpet Inc is 76.80, with a high estimate of 101 and a low estimate of 56.
Open source
Freshpet Inc (FRPT) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $71.67 with a high forecast of $87.00 and a low forecast of $61.00. The average price target represents a -3.81% change from the ...
Extracted: $71.67, $87.00, $61.00Open source
Freshpet, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Spread / Average Target. +11.44%. High Price Target. 101.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +49.14%. Low Price Target. 56.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. -17.31% ...
Extracted: $101.00, $56.00Open source
Freshpet (FRPT) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #5
According to the 17 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Freshpet, the average price target is $73.60. The highest price target for FRPT is $140.00, while ...
Extracted: $73.60, $140.00Open source
Freshpet, Inc. Stock Forecast | FRPT Price Target & Analyst Ratings
Search result #6
Based on 28 analysts in the last 3 months, the overall rating is Buy with a 12-month price target of $74.40, representing 8.58% upside from the current ...
Extracted: $74.40Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$101 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$79 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$56 / p=20% prob

Price $52 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +96% · Base +52% · Bear +9%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-11-30
New production capacity ramp / plant expansion
Capacity additions or commissioning of a new production line that would improve supply and lower COGS over time; date is assumed as end of disclosed window where no single date available [#SERP-4].
Prob 45.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 FY26 quarterly results
2026-05-25
Quarterly earnings and guidance that could reset revenue growth expectations and margins; default conservative estimate used for timing [#SERP-1].
Prob 75% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Category expansion and premiumization tailwinds
2027-02-24
Sustained shift to fresh/premium pet food and potential market-share gains over the next year from retail distribution gains and product innovation [#SERP-2].
Prob 55% • Move 40% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Execution delays on new production capacity
Raw material cost inflation and margin compression
Weaker discretionary consumer spending reducing premium pet-food demand

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GIS	Large CPG with pet-food brands—useful comparison for distribution and shelf economics.
SJM	Owner of branded pet-food lines; relevant for branded-product margin trends.
CHWY	Online pet retail exposure; reflects retail demand and promotional pressure.
HRL	Processed foods producer with pet-food exposure—comparable supply-chain dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Freshpet Inc Common (FRPT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-24