AI Stock Memo: FLY - Firefly Aerospace - RankAlpha

FLY

Rating buyAI Memo

Firefly Aerospace

As of 2026-01-17/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

12‑month analyst target refresh • 2026-04-17

Expected move: +103%

Biggest risk

Bear case: launch failures, delayed certifications, or weaker-than-expected contract wins compress growth prospects and push multiples toward the low analyst estimates.

Invalidation

Break below $27 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: successful scale‑up of launch cadence, several commercial contracts secured, and improved reliability lead to rapid revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the high analyst targets.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-17

Base target

$39

p=60%

Bull target

$68

p=20%

Bear target

$27

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

12‑month analyst target refresh
Major operational milestone or commercial launch
Bull case: successful scale‑up of launch cadence, several commercial contracts secured, and improved reliability lead to rapid revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the high analyst targets.

BearKey bullets

Certification or regulatory delays
Insufficient cash requiring dilutive financing
Launch failure or mission anomaly

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 33.41, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-16T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Method: scenario targets align to prevailing analyst points (low/median/high) observed in public consensus listings and are presented as price levels vs.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $39 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +253% / +40%

Vs latest close: Bull +253% · Base +103% · Bear +40%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $68 (p=20%)Base Target: $39 (p=60%)Bear Target: $27 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus is cautiously constructive: the base target sits modestly above the anchor price, implying limited near-term upside under the central case while the wide high/low spread leaves material optionality if milestones succeed. Sentiment is event-driven—launch outcomes and contract news typically trigger outsized moves and coverage updates drive volatility.

As of 2026-01-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: successful scale‑up of launch cadence, several commercial contracts secured, and improved reliability lead to rapid revenue growth and multiple expansion toward the high analyst targets.

Bear Case

Bear case: launch failures, delayed certifications, or weaker-than-expected contract wins compress growth prospects and push multiples toward the low analyst estimates.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

12‑month analyst target refresh
Major operational milestone or commercial launch

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$39.29

Range (USD)

$27.00 - $68.25

Count

Query: Firefly Aerospace Inc Common (FLY) analyst consensus price target high low average

Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 7 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Firefly Aerospace is 37, with a high estimate of 65 and a low estimate of 27 ...
Open source
Firefly Aerospace Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Spread / Average Target. +55.72% ; High Price Target. 65.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +173.57% ; Low Price Target. 27.00USD ; Spread / ...
Extracted: $65.00, $27.00Open source
FLY Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 37.74 USD with a low forecast of 27.27 USD and a high forecast of 68.25 USD.
Extracted: $37.74, $27.27, $68.25Open source
FIREFLY AEROSPACE INC (FLY) Stock Price, Forecast & Analysis
Search result #4
FLY Forecast & Estimates ... 12 analysts have analysed FLY and the average price target is 37.74 USD. This implies a price increase of 25.76% is expected in the ...
Extracted: $37.74Open source
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #5
According to the 10 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Firefly Aerospace, the average price target is $39.29. The highest price target for FLY is $65.00, ...
Extracted: $39.29, $65.00Open source
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #6
See Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$39 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=20% prob

Price $19 as of 2026-07-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 40%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +253% · Base +103% · Bear +40%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

12‑month analyst target refresh
2026-04-17
Major brokerages publish updated 12‑month price targets and model revisions; consensus currently clustered around the high‑30s with a high near $65 and low near $27 [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Assumes routine quarterly/annual updates in the coming months.
Prob 70% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Major operational milestone or commercial launch
2027-01-17
A successful large commercial launch, certification milestone, or material contract award could drive outsized re‑rating; timing is uncertain so this is treated as a longer‑horizon operational catalyst [#SERP-3]. Date chosen as a conservative 12‑month horizon for delivery/scale assumptions.
Prob 40% • Move 60% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Certification or regulatory delays
Insufficient cash requiring dilutive financing
Launch failure or mission anomaly
Slower commercial ramp or lost contracts

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RKLB	Rocket Lab — comparable small‑sat launch operator focused on growth via dedicated orbital launches and recurring commercial missions.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Firefly Aerospace Inc Common (FLY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-17