AI Stock Memo: FAST - Fastenal - RankAlpha

FAST

Rating neutralAI Memo

Fastenal

As of 2026-04-14/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results and management commentary (8-K filing) • 2026-04-13

Expected move: +11%

Biggest risk

Macro-driven slowdown or persistent pricing pressure compresses daily-sales growth and margins; share gains stall and investor multiple contracts toward commodity distributor peers.

Invalidation

Break below $38 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Fastenal sustains share gains and reaccelerates pricing/mix improvements while productivity offsets input-cost pressure; recurring daily-sales growth and margin expansion drive re-rating toward higher multiple peers.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-14

Base target

$49

p=55%

Bull target

$60

p=25%

Bear target

$38

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Follow-up Q1 call takeaways and near-term demand commentary
H2 2026 order/backlog and productivity program execution
Fastenal sustains share gains and reaccelerates pricing/mix improvements while productivity offsets input-cost pressure; recurring daily-sales growth and margin expansion drive re-rating toward higher multiple peers.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on productivity/share-gain initiatives
Macroeconomic-driven capex slowdown
Sustained pricing pressure and negative mix

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results and management commentary (8-K filing)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $49 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +36% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +11% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $60 (p=25%)Base Target: $49 (p=55%)Bear Target: $38 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market reaction to the Apr 13 8-K was muted-to-negative on pricing commentary despite solid daily-sales headlines; investor focus centers on forward pricing/mix and whether share gains persist [#8-K-2026-04-13] [#PR-2026-03-27]. Recent analyst targets cluster around the mid-$40s, leaving limited near-term consensus upside but scope for upside if management confirms durable demand improvement [#SERP-2] [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-04-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Macro-driven slowdown or persistent pricing pressure compresses daily-sales growth and margins; share gains stall and investor multiple contracts toward commodity distributor peers.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Follow-up Q1 call takeaways and near-term demand commentary
H2 2026 order/backlog and productivity program execution

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$48.83

Range (USD)

$36.63 - $88.00

Count

Query: Fastenal Co Common (FAST) analyst consensus price target high low average

Fastenal Company: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 18 ; Last Close Price. 45.64USD ; Average target price. 45.24USD ; Spread / Average Target. -0.87%.
Extracted: $45.64, $45.24Open source
FAST Stock Forecast - Fastenal Co - Alpha Spread
Search result #4
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FAST is 46.259 USD with a low forecast of 38.38 USD and a high forecast of 54.6 USD. What ...
Extracted: $46.26, $38.38, $54.60Open source
FAST Analyst Ratings for Fastenal Company Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #5
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Hold. 3.12. Based on 17 analysts. 2 ...
Open source
Fastenal Company Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (FAST)
Search result #6
Analysts hold a consensus "Hold" with a $48.83 average target, though bulls at Baird ($52) and Jefferies ($52) see meaningful upside ahead of Q1 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $48.83, $52.00Open source
Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
Fastenal (FAST) fell 0.41% after reporting Q1 earnings that met expectations but highlighted pricing challenges, amid negative macro headlines about ...
Open source
Fastenal (FAST) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #1
The highest price target for FAST is $82.00, while the lowest price target for FAST is $38.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 7.40% ...
Extracted: $82.00, $38.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$49 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=20% prob

Price $44 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +11% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-13
Q1 2026 results and management commentary (8-K filing)
Fastenal filed an 8-K on 2026-04-13 attaching its Q1 2026 press release with results and management commentary; market reaction to the release (pricing commentary, daily sales cadence) is the immediate catalyst [#8-K-2026-04-13].
Prob 95.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Follow-up Q1 call takeaways and near-term demand commentary
2026-05-14
Management conference call and investor Q&A (announced in the company's PR) will clarify pricing, mix, and productivity plans and could reset near-term growth expectations; use disclosure on the call and subsequent daily-sales updates as company-guided lead indicators [#PR-2026-03-27] [#8-K-2026-04-13].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

H2 2026 order/backlog and productivity program execution
2026-12-31
Fastenal's 10-K provides the baseline for FY2025 operations; the primary long driver is evidence of sustained share gains, order/backlog improvement, or measurable productivity/pricing pickup across H2 2026 — if confirmed vs. Q1 trends this supports a multi-quarter re-rating [#10-K-2026-02-05].
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution risk on productivity/share-gain initiatives
Macroeconomic-driven capex slowdown
Sustained pricing pressure and negative mix
Worsening end-market industrial demand

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GWW	W.W. Grainger: direct industrial distributor peer; comparable dynamics in MRO order flow and service/parts penetration.
ROK	Rockwell Automation: automation/industrial exposure but useful comparator on capital spending sensitivity and channel demand.
AME	AMETEK: diversified industrial with exposure to aftermarket and industrial segments—helps frame execution vs. broader industrial capex trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Fastenal Co Common (FAST) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-14