F

AI Memo

Ford Motor

As of 2026-01-09/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Macro/interest-rate shock or demand slowdown • 2026-04-09

Expected move: -9%

Biggest risk

Bear case: slower-than-expected EV adoption, margin pressure from materials/financing, or macro-driven demand decline leads to multiple compression and weaker free-cash-flow conversion.

Invalidation

Break below $11 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: visible EV margin improvement and successful cost cuts produce a re-rating to growth multiple; robust F-150/utility demand sustains revenue and cash generation.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-09

Base target

$14

p=60%

Bull target

$17

p=20%

Bear target

$11

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (estimated window)
EV margin and cost-reduction realization
Bull case: visible EV margin improvement and successful cost cuts produce a re-rating to growth multiple; robust F-150/utility demand sustains revenue and cash generation.

BearKey bullets

Macro-driven drop in vehicle demand / financing stress
Slower EV margin improvement than forecast
Supply-chain or commodity-cost shocks

WatchKey bullets

Macro/interest-rate shock or demand slowdown

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +9% / -32%

Vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base -9% · Bear -32%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=60%)Bear Target: $11 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market signals are mixed-to-cautious: analyst medians are slightly below the anchor, indicating tepid near-term upside for many contributors [#SERP-1]. Some outlets show wider dispersion (highs to lows), reflecting uncertainty around EV margins and macro demand [#SERP-8]. Overall tone is neutral-to-slightly-negative, favoring a wait-and-see stance [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-01-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: visible EV margin improvement and successful cost cuts produce a re-rating to growth multiple; robust F-150/utility demand sustains revenue and cash generation.

Bear Case

Bear case: slower-than-expected EV adoption, margin pressure from materials/financing, or macro-driven demand decline leads to multiple compression and weaker free-cash-flow conversion.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings (estimated window)
EV margin and cost-reduction realization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-09Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$13.27

Range (USD)

$7.00 - $16.00

Count

Query: Ford Motor Co Common (F) analyst consensus price target high low average

F | Ford Motor Co. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $16.00. Median, $13.50. Low, $11.00. Average, $13.41. Current Price, $13.74. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. F will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $16.00, $13.50, $11.00, $13.41, $13.74Open source
Ford Motor (F) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
According to projections from 19 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Ford Motor is 12.99842, with a high estimate of 16 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Ford Motor Company (F) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #3
See Ford Motor Company (F) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
FORD MOTOR CO(NYSE:F) stock Analyst Ratings | ChartMill.com
Search result #4
31 analysts have analysed F and the average price target is 13.12 USD. This implies a price decrease of -4.49% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $13.12Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Ford Motor (F)
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $8.00 to a high of $15.00. The average price target represents a decline of 9.83% from the last closing price of $13.74.
Extracted: $8.00, $15.00, $13.74Open source
F Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Ford Motor Co
Search result #6
Wall Street analysts forecast F stock price to drop over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for F is ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=20% prob

Price $16 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +9% · Base -9% · Bear -32%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-09
Macro/interest-rate shock or demand slowdown
A macro tightening or vehicle demand shock could compress multiples and ABS/lease financing availability; no single public date — conservative window end assumed for planning purposes (window end chosen) and noted here.
Prob 40.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings (estimated window)
2026-04-09
Next major earnings release not explicitly dated in provided snippets; using conservative short-window assumption for market reaction. Results could move valuation via margins and EV/ICE guidance; analyst target medians suggest mixed expectations [#SERP-1]. Assumed date used per short-catalyst rule.
Prob 80% • Move 8% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

EV margin and cost-reduction realization
2027-01-09
Sustained improvement in EV profitability (cost reductions, scale) would materially raise long-term multiple; consensus targets currently are around low-teens and imply downside from some analysts [#SERP-4], so visible margin progress drives re-rating.
Prob 50% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Macro-driven drop in vehicle demand / financing stress
Slower EV margin improvement than forecast
Supply-chain or commodity-cost shocks

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GM	Legacy US OEM with similar ICE exposure; useful operational comparison on cost takeout and financing sensitivity.
TSLA	EV technology and margin benchmark; sets competitive expectations for EV pricing and software monetization.
TM	Global scale and diversified mix; serves as a reference for resilience in global supply and hybrid strategy.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Ford Motor Co Common (F) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-09

AI Stock Memo: F - Ford Motor - RankAlpha