AI Stock Memo: EXE - Expand Energy - RankAlpha

EXE

Rating buyAI Memo

Expand Energy

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target/coverage updates • 2026-04-27

Expected move: +48%

Biggest risk

Bear thesis: commodity-price weakness or execution shortfalls materially compress margins and cash flow, pushing the stock toward the lower end of published targets and past low estimates [#SERP-10].

Invalidation

Break below $100 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull thesis: execution on project FID(s) and stronger-than-expected production/CF from new assets drives meaningful upside toward the high end of analyst targets; multiple analysts show upside potential if guidance/macro align [#SERP-3], [#SERP-4].

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$131

p=55%

Bull target

$165

p=25%

Bear target

$100

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Upcoming quarterly results / earnings revision
Major capital project / production ramp (FID to first production)
Bull thesis: execution on project FID(s) and stronger-than-expected production/CF from new assets drives meaningful upside toward the high end of analyst targets; multiple analysts show upside potential if guidance/macro align [#SERP-3], [#SERP-4].

BearKey bullets

Commodity-price swings could sharply reduce realized margins and cash flow, pressuring valuation and liquidity [#SERP-10].
Delays or cost overruns on key projects would compress forecasts and push targets toward the bear case [#SERP-3].
Regulatory or permitting setbacks could limit development optionality and material upside [#SERP-4].

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target/coverage updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $131 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +87% / +13%

Vs latest close: Bull +87% · Base +48% · Bear +13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $165 (p=25%)Base Target: $131 (p=55%)Bear Target: $100 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst consensus is cautiously positive: the median (~$131) sits ~20% above the anchor while published estimates span ~$98–$170, indicating wide dispersion and conditional upside [#SERP-4][#SERP-3]. Short-term moves track news and estimate flows; conviction is moderate, making execution on catalysts pivotal for any re-rating [#SERP-8].

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear thesis: commodity-price weakness or execution shortfalls materially compress margins and cash flow, pushing the stock toward the lower end of published targets and past low estimates [#SERP-10].

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Upcoming quarterly results / earnings revision
Major capital project / production ramp (FID to first production)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$130.68

Range (USD)

$98.00 - $170.10

Count

Query: Expand Energy Corp Common (EXE) analyst consensus price target high low average

Expand Energy Corp (EXE) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
Our Expand Energy Corp stock forecast data is based on consensus analyst prediction, covering public companies earnings per share and revenue.
Open source
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
EXPAND ENERGY CORP has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $118.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Medium; a Safety ...
Extracted: $118.00Open source
Expand Energy (EXE) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #3
The highest price target for EXE is $150.00, while the lowest price target for EXE is $98.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 16.07% ...
Extracted: $150.00, $98.00Open source
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #4
The average price target is $133.00 with a high forecast of $150.00 and a low forecast of $106.00. The average price target represents a 21.47% change from the ...
Extracted: $133.00, $150.00, $106.00Open source
EXE Stock Forecast - Expand Energy Corp - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXE is 136.15 USD with a low forecast of 107.06 USD and a high forecast of 170.1 USD.
Extracted: $136.15, $107.06, $170.10Open source
EXE Analyst Ratings for Expand Energy Corporation Stock
Search result #6
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Strong Buy. 4.70. Based on 27 analysts.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$165 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$131 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=20% prob

Price $88 as of 2026-06-26

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +87% · Base +48% · Bear +13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-27
Analyst target/coverage updates
Periodic analyst revisions (target/ratings) commonly shift market sentiment; recent reports show a range of targets and active coverage that could produce a discrete repricing event [#SERP-7], [#SERP-2].
Prob 60.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Upcoming quarterly results / earnings revision
2026-04-27
Next quarterly report and accompanying guidance could re-rate shares if cash flow/production beats or misses consensus; analysts' estimates and targets already show dispersion [#SERP-8], [#SERP-4].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Major capital project / production ramp (FID to first production)
2027-01-27
A successful final investment decision (FID) and subsequent production ramp would materially increase forward cash flows; timeline uncertain but treated here as a multi-quarter outcome referenced by coverage consensus [#SERP-3].
Prob 40% • Move 30% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Commodity-price swings could sharply reduce realized margins and cash flow, pressuring valuation and liquidity [#SERP-10].
Delays or cost overruns on key projects would compress forecasts and push targets toward the bear case [#SERP-3].
Regulatory or permitting setbacks could limit development optionality and material upside [#SERP-4].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
OXY	Integrated E&P with heavier balance-sheet focus; good comparator for capital allocation and M&A dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Expand Energy Corp Common (EXE) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27