EVRG

Rating buyAI Memo

Evergy

As of 2026-02-20/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Kansas general rate-case decision (KCC) • 2026-05-21

Base target: $83 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes adverse rate decisions or material disallowances, higher-than-expected capex/operating costs, or persistent regulatory delays that compress cash flow and valuation toward the analyst low near 76.0.

Invalidation

Break below $76 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes favorable regulatory outcomes (above-consensus allowed ROE), timely recovery of capex in rates, and lower financing costs enabling earnings accretion toward the analyst high; under this scenario shares move toward the analyst high of 97.65.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-20

Base target

$83

p=60%

Bull target

$98

p=20%

Bear target

$76

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Kansas general rate-case decision (KCC)
Quarterly earnings / guidance update (Q1 2026)
Missouri settlement/appeal resolution and long-term rate truing

BearKey bullets

Adverse rate-case rulings or lower-than-requested ROE
Higher financing costs or weaker cash flow leading to credit pressure
Regulatory disallowance of capital expenditures

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 79.53, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-19T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Method: scenario targets set around the analyst panel spread (low=76.0, median=83.395, high=97.65) with base aligned near analyst median; base_target (83.0) is slightly below the analyst median (83.395) and within the reported analyst low/high range, bull equals the reported analyst high (97.65), and bear equals the reported analyst low (76.0).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $83 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +18% / -8%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $98 (p=20%)Base Target: $83 (p=60%)Bear Target: $76 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus on 12-month targets clusters modestly above the anchor, with median analyst targets near the low-to-mid $80s [#SERP-6]. Coverage shows a spread from ~$76 to ~$97, signaling mixed views that hinge on regulatory outcomes and capex recovery [#SERP-2][#SERP-7]. Short-term tone is cautious-to-neutral given regulatory uncertainty and modest upside in the median.

As of 2026-02-20 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Kansas general rate-case decision (KCC)
Quarterly earnings / guidance update (Q1 2026)
Missouri settlement/appeal resolution and long-term rate truing

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-20Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$83.40

Range (USD)

$76.00 - $97.65

Count

Query: Evergy Inc Common (EVRG) analyst consensus price target high low average

Evergy, Inc. (EVRG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Analyst UBS. Rating Action Downgrade. Rating Neutral. Price Action Raises. Price Target 86 -> 88. View More. Statistics: EVRG. View More. Valuation Measures.
Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Evergy (EVRG)
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $76.00 to a high of $91.00. The average price target represents an increase of 5.66% from the last closing price of $80.40.
Extracted: $76.00, $91.00, $80.40Open source
Evergy (EVRG) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2025
Search result #3
The highest price target for EVRG is $91.00, while the lowest price target for EVRG is $76.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 5.93% ...
Extracted: $91.00, $76.00Open source
Evergy, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #4
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 13 ; Last Close Price. 82.69USD ; Average target price. 84.32USD ; Spread / Average Target. +1.97%.
Extracted: $82.69, $84.32Open source
EVERGY INC (EVRG) Stock Analyst Ratings - ChartMill
Search result #5
Analysts have set a mean price target forecast of 86.05. This target is 4.06% above the current price. EVRG was analyzed by 20 analysts. The buy percentage ...
Open source
Evergy Inc. Analyst Estimates - EVRG - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $91.00. Median, $83.50. Low, $76.00. Average, $83.75. Current Price, $81.51. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. EVRG will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $91.00, $83.50, $76.00, $83.75, $81.51Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$98 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$83 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$76 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Kansas general rate-case decision (KCC)
2026-05-21
Evergy filed a general rate case with the Kansas Corporation Commission (filed July 1, 2024); a final KCC decision or settlement could rebase allowed returns and near-term cash flow. Expected date is an estimate; using a conservative short-horizon assumption for decision timing (assumption: regulatory outcome within ~90 days) [assumption noted].
Prob 65% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%
Quarterly earnings / guidance update (Q1 2026)
2026-05-21
Quarterly result and guidance update may include capex cadence and regulatory commentary that affect near-term cash flow; expected date is estimated conservatively (short horizon) when no exact release date is disclosed (assumption).
Prob 70% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Missouri settlement/appeal resolution and long-term rate truing
2027-02-20
Missouri PSC previously approved a settlement (2024); outstanding truing adjustments, appeals, or subsequent filings could take longer to resolve and materially affect allowed returns and capex recovery — date set conservatively at one year given regulatory timelines (assumption).
Prob 40% • Move 8% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Adverse rate-case rulings or lower-than-requested ROE
Higher financing costs or weaker cash flow leading to credit pressure
Regulatory disallowance of capital expenditures
Severe weather or operational outages increasing short-term costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AEE	Ameren — similarly regulated Midwestern utility with exposure to rate filings and grid modernization capex; useful operational/regulatory comparators.
PPL	PPL — large regulated utility with active rate cases and capex programs; comparable for regulatory outcomes and allowed returns trends.
DTE	DTE Energy — major regulated utility with substantial distribution and generation investment program; relevant for capex recovery and regulatory messaging.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Evergy Inc Common (EVRG) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-20

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Symbol

Summary

AEE

Ameren — similarly regulated Midwestern utility with exposure to rate filings and grid modernization capex; useful operational/regulatory comparators.

PPL

PPL — large regulated utility with active rate cases and capex programs; comparable for regulatory outcomes and allowed returns trends.

DTE

DTE Energy — major regulated utility with substantial distribution and generation investment program; relevant for capex recovery and regulatory messaging.