ESTC

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Elastic

As of 2026-05-29/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4/FY26 beat and FY27 guide raise keep the post-print setup constructive • 2026-05-29

Expected move: +10%

Biggest risk

The FY27 guide still implies growth moderates to 14.6% at the midpoint, and management highlighted cloud-vs-self-managed mix, consumption, FX, and large-deal timing as sources of variability. If backlog conversion or sales-capacity ramp slips, the stock can stall even after a strong quarter.

Invalidation

Break below $50 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The print was clean enough to support a constructive rerate: revenue and EPS beat, CRPO/RPO accelerated, AI usage is broadening, and management is pointing to better margin structure in FY27 and beyond. If backlog converts as planned, the company can keep growing into its AI/search/security platform story.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$68

p=50%

Bull target

$82

p=25%

Bear target

$50

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-print analyst digestion stayed constructive but the target reset was selective
Backlog, AI usage, and larger enterprise commitments can support FY27/FY29 scaling
The print was clean enough to support a constructive rerate: revenue and EPS beat, CRPO/RPO accelerated, AI usage is broadening, and management is pointing to better margin structure in FY27 and beyond.

BearKey bullets

AI adoption is encouraging but still functions more as a supporting demand signal than a standalone, fully de-risked growth metric.
FY27 revenue guidance still decelerates to 14.6% midpoint growth, so investors need proof that CRPO and RPO convert into faster realized revenue.
Management flagged cloud-vs-self-managed mix, consumption, FX, and large-deal timing as meaningful sources of quarterly revenue variability.

WatchKey bullets

Q4/FY26 beat and FY27 guide raise keep the post-print setup constructive

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $68 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +33% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +10% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $82 (p=25%)Base Target: $68 (p=50%)Bear Target: $50 (p=25%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone was constructive: TipRanks summarized the call as positive and showed ESTC up 5.3% in the session summary, while the first analyst follow-ups remained Buy-rated even as Baird trimmed its target to $72 and Jefferies held $75. Coverage is still not dense, so this looks like a moderately positive follow-through rather than a high-conviction re-rating.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-print analyst digestion stayed constructive but the target reset was selective
Backlog, AI usage, and larger enterprise commitments can support FY27/FY29 scaling

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$50 / p=25% prob

Price $62 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +10% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.68

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-29
Q4/FY26 beat and FY27 guide raise keep the post-print setup constructive
Elastic reported Q4 revenue of $451M (+16% y/y), non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.61, CRPO of $1.203B (+20% y/y), RPO of $1.982B (+28% y/y), and guided FY27 revenue to $1.985B-$2.000B with non-GAAP operating margin around 19% [#8-K-2026-05-28]. The print confirms backlog conversion is improving and gives the stock a cleaner near-term earnings anchor.
Prob 82.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-print analyst digestion stayed constructive but the target reset was selective
2026-06-05
The first analyst reactions were still positive, with Baird keeping a Buy but trimming its target to $72 and Jefferies maintaining Buy at $75. That supports the earnings beat, but the mixed target discipline suggests the market is still asking for proof that backlog turns into sustained revenue acceleration rather than a one-quarter pop.
Prob 58% • Move 3% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Backlog, AI usage, and larger enterprise commitments can support FY27/FY29 scaling
2027-04-30
Management said over 600 customers with ACV above $100k are using Elastic's AI capabilities, the $5M+ ACV cohort grew 30%, and the company raised its FY29 non-GAAP operating margin target to approximately 25% while reaffirming 20%+ sales-led subscription growth ambitions. If CRPO continues converting, the long-duration thesis is intact [#8-K-2026-05-28].
Prob 63% • Move 10% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

AI adoption is encouraging but still functions more as a supporting demand signal than a standalone, fully de-risked growth metric.
FY27 revenue guidance still decelerates to 14.6% midpoint growth, so investors need proof that CRPO and RPO convert into faster realized revenue.
Management flagged cloud-vs-self-managed mix, consumption, FX, and large-deal timing as meaningful sources of quarterly revenue variability.
The back-half acceleration thesis depends on ramping sales capacity and continued enterprise deal wins; if execution slips, recognition can wobble.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PEGA	Closest peer on enterprise workflow/automation monetization and margin expansion; useful for comparing AI-assisted platform adoption, though it has less direct exposure to search, observability, and security.
NICE	Enterprise software peer with AI-enabled workflow and customer interaction exposure; a useful benchmark for recurring revenue durability and operating-margin scaling in a mature software base.
OTEX	More mature information-management software peer; useful as a slower-growth cash-flow comparison if Elastic's backlog conversion or growth acceleration fades.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: ESTC - Elastic - RankAlpha