EPAC
AI MemoPost-earnings T+3Enerpac Tool Group
As of 2026-11-02/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium
Data freshness
AI Memo
As of 2026-11-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Decision Panel
Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.
Action
—
Confidence
medium
Horizon
—
Key catalyst
November 4 Investor Day • 2026-11-04
Base target: $40 / p=50% prob
Biggest risk
Q4 gross margin fell to 47.0% from 50.1%, adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 22.6% from 26.5%, and acquisition-related leverage raises the cost of an integration miss. A strong post-print share-price gain leaves less room for disappointment. SEC earnings exhibit SEC acquisition exhibit historical prices
Invalidation
Break below $32 or thesis failure.
What would change my mind?
Q4 organic sales grew 10%, fiscal 2026 free cash flow reached $119.6 million, and SFE broadens the product portfolio. Sustained organic growth plus successful integration could support a higher valuation, although the initial price reaction already captured some optimism. SEC earnings exhibit SEC acquisition exhibit historical prices
Research note
Recommendation
—
Confidence
medium
As of
2026-11-02
Base target
$40
p=50%
Bull target
$48
p=25%
Bear target
$32
p=25%
Key bullets
Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items
BullKey bullets
- Post-earnings reassessment
- SFE integration and deleveraging
- Q4 organic sales grew 10%, fiscal 2026 free cash flow reached $119.6 million, and SFE broadens the product portfolio.
BearKey bullets
- Fiscal 2027 guidance assumes no substantial change in tariffs or the regulatory environment.
- SEC earnings exhibit
- Q4 margin compression from mix, incentive compensation and growth investment could persist despite the revenue beat.
WatchKey bullets
- November 4 Investor Day
Summary
High-level snapshot
Recommendation
-
Model confidence
medium
Timeframe
-
Asset
Equity
Trigger
Post-earnings T+3
Base case: $40 (p=50%)
Target spread vs base: +20% / -20%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $48 (p=25%)Base Target: $40 (p=50%)Bear Target: $32 (p=25%)
Commentary
After the October 28 earnings release and SFE closing, EPAC rose 10.42% from a $35.70 close on October 28 to $39.42 on October 29, then closed at the packet's $40.56 anchor on October 30. The favorable reaction held through that close, but the contribution of earnings versus the acquisition cannot be isolated. The revenue beat contrasts with margin pressure. No dated post-print analyst target or estimate revision was verified in this bounded follow-up; social, options and short-interest measures were not supplied, so the zero values denote unavailable data rather than neutral readings. SEC earnings exhibit SEC acquisition exhibit historical prices
As of 2026-11-02 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology
Analyst Summary
Thesis highlights from the latest analysis
Bull Case
Q4 organic sales grew 10%, fiscal 2026 free cash flow reached $119.6 million, and SFE broadens the product portfolio. Sustained organic growth plus successful integration could support a higher valuation, although the initial price reaction already captured some optimism. SEC earnings exhibit SEC acquisition exhibit historical prices
Bear Case
Q4 gross margin fell to 47.0% from 50.1%, adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 22.6% from 26.5%, and acquisition-related leverage raises the cost of an integration miss. A strong post-print share-price gain leaves less room for disappointment. SEC earnings exhibit SEC acquisition exhibit historical prices
Drivers
Scannable catalysts and supporting factors
- Post-earnings reassessment
- SFE integration and deleveraging
Scenarios
Bull Target (Scenario probability)
$48 / p=25% prob
Base Target (Scenario probability)
$40 / p=50% prob
Bear Target (Scenario probability)
$32 / p=25% prob
Analysis 2026-11-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.
Sentiment & Exposure
News Sentiment (30d)
0.20
Social Sentiment (7d)
0.00
Events
Other notable items detected
- EVENT2026-11-04November 4 Investor DayEnerpac has scheduled an Investor Day for November 4. More detail on the fiscal 2027 margin path and SFE integration could test whether the post-earnings rally holds; no incremental targets are assumed. SEC earnings exhibit [#8-K-2026-10-28]Prob 65.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
Short-term Catalysts
Next few weeks
- Post-earnings reassessment2026-11-13Enerpac reported fiscal Q4 sales of $185.7 million and adjusted EPS of $0.53, versus Benzinga's pre-print consensus figures of $173.1 million and $0.52. Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 22.6% from 26.5% a year earlier. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $825 million–$845 million in sales and $2.00–$2.15 in adjusted EPS. Shares rose 10.42% on October 29, so the favorable print may already be partly reflected in price; the simultaneous SFE closing complicates attribution. SEC earnings exhibit Benzinga consensus historical prices [#8-K-2026-10-28] [#SEC-8K-2026-10-28]Prob 70% • Move -3% • Priced-in 65%
Long-term Catalysts
Months to a year
- SFE integration and deleveraging2027-08-31Enerpac completed the SFE acquisition on October 28. It expects fiscal 2027 adjusted-EPS accretion and $4 million–$6 million of synergies by year three, but estimated closing net leverage at about 2.3 times and integration costs at $10 million–$14 million. Execution and cash generation must substantiate the acquisition case. SEC acquisition exhibit [#PR-2026-10-28]Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%
Risks
- Fiscal 2027 guidance assumes no substantial change in tariffs or the regulatory environment. SEC earnings exhibit
- Q4 margin compression from mix, incentive compensation and growth investment could persist despite the revenue beat. SEC earnings exhibit
- SFE integration costs, customer retention and higher post-close leverage could offset expected accretion. SEC acquisition exhibit
Sources
Internal and external references used in this analysis
- Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
- Analysis date: 2026-11-02