ELPC

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Companhia Paranaense de Energia

As of 2026-04-12/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Fully-digital Annual Shareholder Meeting (proxy items, board/ dividend updates) • 2026-04-23

Base target: $14 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Bear case: tariff or regulatory outcomes disappoint, operating metrics weaken or FX/cost pressures persist; market narrows multiples and ADR trades toward analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: Q1 results and/or shareholder disclosures show stronger regulated-margin recovery, stable or higher dividends and clearer capex guidance, prompting re-rating toward higher analyst targets and stronger investor demand.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-12

Base target

$14

p=60%

Bull target

$17

p=20%

Bear target

$10

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Bull case: Q1 results and/or shareholder disclosures show stronger regulated-margin recovery, stable or higher dividends and clearer capex guidance, prompting re-rating toward higher analyst targets and stronger investor demand.
ANCHOR: {"price": 13.34, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Our base target (13.50) sits slightly above the analyst median (12.93) and within the reported analyst range (low 10.4; high 21.0), reflecting modest upside from the anchor and limited short-term visibility into tariff/regulatory moves.
Compared with the analyst median (12.93), the base implies a small positive revision but remains conservative versus the high-end peer/analyst scenarios.

BearKey bullets

Dividend or capital-allocation disappointments at AGM
FX and commodity-driven cost inflation impacting margins
Lower-than-expected operational metrics (hydrology, outages)

WatchKey bullets

Fully-digital Annual Shareholder Meeting (proxy items, board/ dividend updates)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +26% / -26%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=60%)Bear Target: $10 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is mixed-to-cautious: analyst consensus is broadly neutral (median ~12.93) while some outlets show higher dispersion and modest buy bias [#SERP-2] [#SERP-4]. Recent investor events and presentations indicate management engagement with investors but forward guidance remains the primary near-term catalyst [#PR-undated] [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-04-12 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: tariff or regulatory outcomes disappoint, operating metrics weaken or FX/cost pressures persist; market narrows multiples and ADR trades toward analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Bull case: Q1 results and/or shareholder disclosures show stronger regulated-margin recovery, stable or higher dividends and clearer capex guidance, prompting re-rating toward higher analyst targets and stronger investor demand.

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-12Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$12.93

Range (USD)

$10.40 - $21.00

Count

Query: Companhia Paranaense de Energia ADR (ELPC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Companhia Paranaense de Energia ADR (ELPC) - Investing.com
Search result #2
The average 12-month price target for Companhia Paranaense de Energia ADR is 16.17 USD, with a high estimate of 21 USD and a low estimate of 13 USD. 3 analysts ...
Extracted: $16.17, $21.00, $13.00Open source
Companhia Paranaense de Energia-COPEL ADR - ELPC - Barron's
Search result #4
ConsensusBuyBuyBuy. Stock Price Target. High, $16.06. Low, $10.90. Average, $12.86. Current Price, $12.28. ELPC will report FY 2026 earnings on 03/04/2027 ...
Extracted: $16.06, $10.90, $12.86, $12.28Open source
ELPC Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #5
ELPC is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. ... The price of ELPC shares has increased $0.35 since the market ...
Open source
ELPC Stock Price Quote | Morningstar
Search result #6
Cia Paranaense De Energia Copel ADR (Representing Ordinary Shares) ELPC ; Valuation · Price/Earnings (Normalized). 28.22 ; Financial Strength · Quick Ratio. 0.94.
Open source
Companhia Paranaense de Energia ADR (ELPC)
Search result #7
According to projections from 3 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Companhia Paranaense de Energia ADR is 15.70 USD, with a high estimate of 21 USD ...
Extracted: $15.70, $21.00Open source
Companhia Paranaense de E… (ELPC) - Stocks - Robinhood
Search result #8
View the real-time ELPC price chart on Robinhood and decide if you want to buy or sell commission-free. Other fees such as trading (non-commission) fees, ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-04-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-23
Fully-digital Annual Shareholder Meeting (proxy items, board/ dividend updates)
Copel has scheduled a fully-digital shareholder meeting for April 23, 2026; votes or disclosures on dividend policy, governance or capital allocation could be announced or clarified at/around the meeting and affect near-term sentiment [#PR-undated] [#SERP-3].
Prob 85.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 60.00%
EVENT2026-05-05
Q1-2026 earnings release / results center posting
Q1-2026 operating and earnings release expected to be posted in Copel's Results Center around early May 2026; this report will provide EPS, regulatory tariff updates and 2026 guidance/FX sensitivity and could re-rate the ADR if surprises occur [#PR-undated] [#SERP-4].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Risks

Dividend or capital-allocation disappointments at AGM
FX and commodity-driven cost inflation impacting margins
Lower-than-expected operational metrics (hydrology, outages)
Regulatory/tariff adjustments or adverse ANEEL decisions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CIG	Brazilian regulated utility with similar regional distribution business and tariff exposure; useful comparator for regulated cashflow stability and regulatory risk.
BEP	Large renewable platform (global); relevant for renewable generation and long-term contracted merchant exposure comparisons, though business mix differs.
ORA	Smaller-cap power/energy technology company with exposure to power generation assets; helpful for project-level capex and asset-operational comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Companhia Paranaense de Energia ADR (ELPC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-12

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Symbol

Summary

CIG

Brazilian regulated utility with similar regional distribution business and tariff exposure; useful comparator for regulated cashflow stability and regulatory risk.

BEP

Large renewable platform (global); relevant for renewable generation and long-term contracted merchant exposure comparisons, though business mix differs.

ORA

Smaller-cap power/energy technology company with exposure to power generation assets; helpful for project-level capex and asset-operational comparison.