Base case: $14 (p=50%)
Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -9%
Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base +5% · Bear -9%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $15 (p=25%)Base Target: $14 (p=50%)Bear Target: $12 (p=25%)
Commentary
As of May 8, 2026, the setup looks mildly positive but not a clean thesis reset. Primary company materials confirmed a strong Q1 print and continued dividend support, while checked secondary coverage indicated an earnings beat and a roughly 3.5% premarket gain on May 6, 2026. Still, the May 7, 2026 anchor close of $13.59 was only slightly above the reported March 31, 2026 book value of $13.56, and no verified post-print analyst target revision was located in checked sources, so this remains a moderate-confidence monitoring view rather than a high-conviction rerating call.
