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EFC

Ellington FinancialB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 distributable earnings covered dividends, August estimated book value was broadly stable, and longer-term unsecured financing may reduce reliance on repo funding. These support a modestly constructive update to the earlier monitoring thesis.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
August book value is preliminary and may change after valuation procedures; it does not establish third-quarter earnings. Company release
Momentum
37
Value
59
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.80 · Bull $14.80 · Bear $10.20Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.64
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d -6.0
Value59 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • August book value is preliminary and may change after valuation procedures; it does not establish third-quarter earnings. Company release
  • • Mortgage credit, spreads, prepayments and financing availability could weaken asset values or distributable earnings.
  • • Credit deterioration, valuation marks, prepayments or expensive funding could erode book value and dividend coverage.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-14

Upsized unsecured financing changes the funding mix

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.0
Δ21d
-12.0
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-8.9
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 36.5 / Value 59.3 / Sentiment 60.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.51B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
128.89M
P/E (TTM)
10.2
P/S (TTM)
3.13
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
1.79
Rev YoY
+31.7%
EPS YoY
-2.1%
Gross Margin
+82.5%
Op Margin
+81.2%
Net Debt
$16.63B
Current Ratio
0.21
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data