DASH

Rating buyAI Memo

DoorDash

As of 2025-12-05/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-12-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings • 2026-02-05

Expected move: -54%

Biggest risk

Order slowdown, rising driver costs or adverse regulation, and heavy promotions erode revenue per order and compress multiples.

Invalidation

Break below $58 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained order growth, higher take-rates from ads/subs, and margin recovery drive multiple expansion and higher revenue per order.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-12-05

Base target

$73

p=50%

Bull target

$92

p=30%

Bear target

$58

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Regulatory / labor cost pressure
Marketplace & new-vertical expansion
Sustained order growth, higher take-rates from ads/subs, and margin recovery drive multiple expansion and higher revenue per order.

BearKey bullets

Order slowdown, rising driver costs or adverse regulation, and heavy promotions erode revenue per order and compress multiples.

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $73 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: -42% / -64%

Vs latest close: Bull -42% · Base -54% · Bear -64%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $92 (p=30%)Base Target: $73 (p=50%)Bear Target: $58 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: cautious optimism on monetization and margin leverage is offset by cost inflation and regulatory headlines. Near-term risk centers on the earnings print; longer-term upside depends on sustained take-rate gains.

As of 2025-12-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained order growth, higher take-rates from ads/subs, and margin recovery drive multiple expansion and higher revenue per order.

Bear Case

Order slowdown, rising driver costs or adverse regulation, and heavy promotions erode revenue per order and compress multiples.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Regulatory / labor cost pressure
Marketplace & new-vertical expansion

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$92 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$73 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=20% prob

Price $159 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 42%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -42% · Base -54% · Bear -64%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-05
Quarterly earnings
Earnings and guidance on revenue, take-rate, and margins are likely to move the stock; market watches order growth and guidance (IR/EDGAR).
Prob 90.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Regulatory / labor cost pressure
2026-06-30
Adverse worker-classification rulings or higher fulfillment costs could compress margins and depress earnings (press/regulatory filings).
Prob 40% • Move -20% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Marketplace & new-vertical expansion
2026-12-31
Subscription, grocery/retail, and advertising growth could lift take-rates and revenue per order if execution holds (Investor presentation).
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

No risks

Peers

Symbol	Summary
UBER	Diversified mobility+delivery; scale and revenue-mix contrast.
POST	Retail/logistics exposure that highlights margin sensitivity to fulfillment costs.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-12-05

AI Stock Memo: DASH - DoorDash - RankAlpha