CTRE

Rating buyAI Memo

CareTrust REIT

As of 2026-02-06/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings & dividend update (Q4/FY2025) • 2026-05-07

Expected move: -7%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes persistent occupancy pressure, lower reimbursement/lease terms, or a meaningful rise in cap rates that compresses NAV and forces dividend cuts; this could push the stock materially below the current anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $33 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes NAV re-rating, accretive portfolio acquisitions, and stabilized occupancy that validates the higher analyst high (~$45.15). Dividend sustainability and stronger-than-expected rent growth would support this outcome.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-06

Base target

$40

p=65%

Bull target

$45

p=20%

Bear target

$33

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Interest-rate / cap-rate environment and portfolio NAV revaluation
Bull case assumes NAV re-rating, accretive portfolio acquisitions, and stabilized occupancy that validates the higher analyst high (~$45.15).

BearKey bullets

Capital-markets funding illiquidity for acquisitions/refinancing
Dividend cut or weaker payout coverage
Occupancy and operator performance declines

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings & dividend update (Q4/FY2025)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $40 (p=65%)

Bull/Bear spread: +5% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -7% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $45 (p=20%)Base Target: $40 (p=65%)Bear Target: $33 (p=15%)

Commentary

Recent analyst coverage is modestly positive with a consensus median near $39.78 and occasional higher targets up to $45.15, implying cautious optimism among sell-side contributors [#SERP-2], [#SERP-5]. Market discussion centers on rate sensitivity and portfolio-level fundamentals (occupancy/reimbursement), producing mixed tone across sources [#SERP-3], [#SERP-8].

As of 2026-02-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Interest-rate / cap-rate environment and portfolio NAV revaluation

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$39.78

Range (USD)

$35.79 - $45.15

Count

Query: CareTrust REIT Inc Common (CTRE) analyst consensus price target high low average

CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #1
Financial analysts have set a price target of $39.78, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $39.78Open source
Caretrust Inc (CTRE) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
According to projections from 11 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Caretrust Inc is 41.45, with a high estimate of 44 and a low estimate of 37.
Open source
CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $37.00 to a high of $44.00. The average price target represents an increase of 13% from the last closing price of $36.68.
Extracted: $37.00, $44.00, $36.68Open source
CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #4
CARETRUST REIT INC has an Investment Rating of BUY; a target price of $40.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of High; a Safety ...
Extracted: $40.00Open source
CTRE / CareTrust REIT, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ... - Fintel
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for CareTrust REIT, Inc. is $41.51. The forecasts range from a low of $37.37 to a high of $45.15. Read More.
Extracted: $41.51, $37.37, $45.15Open source
CareTrust REIT, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #6
CARETRUST REIT, INC. 36.41 $ -2.49%. Add to a list · Stock CTRE CARETRUST REIT, INC. PDF Report. Consensus CareTrust REIT, Inc. Equities. CTRE. US14174T1079.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=65% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=15% prob

Price $43 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -7% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Quarterly earnings & dividend update (Q4/FY2025)
Quarterly results and any dividend commentary could move the stock; consensus analyst targets clustered near mid-$30s–$40s suggest earnings/dividend tone will be important for re-rating [#SERP-2], [#SERP-3].
Prob 70.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
2026-05-07
Ongoing analyst updates (consensus median ~$39.78) can lift or lower market expectations; recent published ranges show low ~35.79 to high ~45.15 and frequent revisions by 12-month-target providers [#SERP-1], [#SERP-5].
Prob 50% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Interest-rate / cap-rate environment and portfolio NAV revaluation
2027-02-06
A sustained move in rates or cap-rate compression/expansion will materially change NAV and dividend coverage over the next 12 months; senior-housing REITs are rate-sensitive and will reflect this in valuations [#SERP-3], [#SERP-8].
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Capital-markets funding illiquidity for acquisitions/refinancing
Dividend cut or weaker payout coverage
Occupancy and operator performance declines
Rising interest rates / cap-rate expansion

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NHI	Healthcare-focused REIT with senior-housing exposure and similar tenant base.
OHI	Long-standing skilled-nursing REIT; comparable sensitivity to reimbursement and occupancy.
VTR	Large healthcare/property REIT with diversified medical/senior assets; useful for capital-markets and financing comparisons.
MPW	Healthcare property REIT with mortgage/asset exposure; highlights different capital structure outcomes under stress.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: CareTrust REIT Inc Common (CTRE) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-06

AI Stock Memo: CTRE - CareTrust REIT - RankAlpha