CRAI

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

CRA International

As of 2026-08-04/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 FY2026 results call is scheduled for August 6 • 2026-08-06

Base target: $180 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

The Q1 print showed weak earnings conversion despite revenue growth, with lower EPS and EBITDA. The official company source indicates the Q2 event is still upcoming, so no verified Q2 surprise, guidance revision, analyst target change, or post-print market reaction is available.

Invalidation

Break below $145 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

CRAI entered FY2026 with record Q1 revenue, broad practice-level growth, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and ongoing capital returns. The August 6 call could validate demand and pipeline momentum. [#IR-2026-05-07]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-08-04

Base target

$180

p=50%

Bull target

$225

p=20%

Bear target

$145

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Profit conversion is the key near-term earnings test
Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance and replenishing pipeline
CRAI entered FY2026 with record Q1 revenue, broad practice-level growth, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and ongoing capital returns.

BearKey bullets

Analyst revision, consensus-surprise, options, social, and post-earnings price-reaction data are unavailable or unconfirmed.
CEO and general-counsel Form 4 filings showed open-market sales in May-June; this is a sentiment signal, not evidence about operating performance.
[#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-05]

WatchKey bullets

Q2 FY2026 results call is scheduled for August 6

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $180 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +25% / -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $225 (p=20%)Base Target: $180 (p=50%)Bear Target: $145 (p=30%)

Commentary

News tone is neutral-to-cautious: recent primary-company coverage centers on conference appearances and the upcoming August 6 results call. No verified post-release price reaction or analyst revision signal is available, and the packet's July 30 earnings trigger appears stale relative to company IR. Social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment fields are not supported by the packet.

As of 2026-08-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Profit conversion is the key near-term earnings test
Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance and replenishing pipeline

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$225 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$180 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$145 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.05

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-06
Q2 FY2026 results call is scheduled for August 6
Company IR announced a Q2 FY2026 financial-results webcast for August 6, 2026 and stated that the earnings release and supplemental information would be posted beforehand. The packet's July 30 earnings trigger is not corroborated by the current IR calendar. [#IR-2026-07-23]
Prob 100.00% • Move -2.50% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Profit conversion is the key near-term earnings test
2026-08-07
Q1 FY2026 revenue rose 10.5% to $201.0 million, but GAAP EPS fell 35.5%, non-GAAP EPS fell 10.4%, and non-GAAP EBITDA fell 6.5% year over year. Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue and EBITDA-margin guidance. [#IR-2026-05-07] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]
Prob 60% • Move -6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance and replenishing pipeline
2026-12-31
Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $785 million-$805 million and non-GAAP EBITDA margin guidance of 12%-13%, citing supportive market trends and continued replenishment of the sales pipeline. Execution and demand still require confirmation in Q2. [#IR-2026-05-07]
Prob 45% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Analyst revision, consensus-surprise, options, social, and post-earnings price-reaction data are unavailable or unconfirmed.
CEO and general-counsel Form 4 filings showed open-market sales in May-June; this is a sentiment signal, not evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-05]
Management flagged geopolitical, macroeconomic, and business-condition risks to FY2026 results and guidance. [#IR-2026-05-07]
Q2 earnings timing in the event packet conflicts with the company's current IR schedule; the Q2 release was not available on the checked IR page as of August 4.
Revenue growth may not translate into earnings growth, given Q1 declines in GAAP EPS, non-GAAP EPS, and EBITDA.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HURN	The closest named consulting comparison in the packet, but available evidence concerns Huron rather than CRAI and does not provide a clean relative valuation or estimate-revision comparison.
WLDN	Potential professional-services adjacency, but the same-sector market-cap screen is not a direct operating peer set; use only as broad context.
UPWK	Same-sector and similar market-cap candidate, but its platform model makes it a loose comparison for CRAI's consulting business.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-08-04

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Symbol

Summary

HURN

The closest named consulting comparison in the packet, but available evidence concerns Huron rather than CRAI and does not provide a clean relative valuation or estimate-revision comparison.

WLDN

Potential professional-services adjacency, but the same-sector market-cap screen is not a direct operating peer set; use only as broad context.

UPWK

Same-sector and similar market-cap candidate, but its platform model makes it a loose comparison for CRAI's consulting business.